Saturday, January 15, 2011

011411 Day Trade Review: How 1 trade can ruin your day CSTR JPM

Analysis/Review


There are 2 charts below are 2 "In Play" stocks that I traded today. CSTR is a lesson in breaking discipline and JPM is an example of a good trade turned failure to get back in to catch a chop. I broke discipline in CSTR multiple times at the open (exceeded 20c stop rule). Stock had a wide spread and so I bent or more accurately opened wide open this rule and got ripped up. Luckily I was able to offset this slip-up with winners in MCD, JPM & BP and barely finish positive for the day. JPM was a nice momo catch in AM and I was able to buy in a nice dip and sell at the first peak but then failed to get back in when this strong stock tested and bounced off the daily VWAP missed almost a full point there.

Stats


Total Trades
16
% Winners

56.25%
Losers
7
ROI Losers

-$23.63
Winners
9
ROI Winners

$21.83
RR
0.92

 Goals

1. Trades to hold
2. Maintain a RR above 3 with +5 being ideal
3. Try to keep that Win ratio above 60%
4. Try to work on exits (reasons to sell) & trading around a position
5. Screen recording to replay the action
6. Try to limit stocks I'm watching to a handful or basket

CSTR


JPM


Thursday, January 13, 2011

01/06/11: Day Trading Review: GS & LULU

Analysis/Review: Just showing 2 of the day trades I took today. I was able to finish positive with 2 nice trades in GS & FSLR which carried my P&L positive despite a sub-par win rate (less than 50%). What I like about today's trades is that I kept losses minimal with the exception of LULU seen below. Looking back on the charts today action turned somewhat sloppy throughout the day or stuck in tighter ranges. Another note is that I could have held GS longer & played the range more throughout the day.


Stats


Total Trades
17
% Winners

41.18%
Losers
10
ROI Losers

-$13.60
Winners
7
ROI Winners

$23.00
RR
1.69


Goals


1. Trades to hold
2. Maintain a RR above 3 with +5 being ideal
3. Try to keep that Win ratio above 60%
4. Try to work on exits (reasons to sell) & trading around a position
5. Screen recording to replay the action

LULU


GS


*The above trades were meant as day trades only. There may have been other trades I called out on twitter that do not appear here because they were not intended as day trades & were taken in other accounts. Those are not covered in this analysis. Thank You.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

01/11/11: Day Trading Review: APOL & LEN

Analysis/Review: Missed a ton of trends today and unfortunately scalped too much. Gave back almost half of my day's gains into the close with a few less than ideal setups in APOL, LVS & WFMI. Need to only be willing to risk 33%. Below are the 2 stocks I traded multiple times. The ones that got away are the coal sector, RIMM, oil names, etc...

Goals


1. Trades to hold
2. Maintain a RR above 3 with +5 being ideal
3. Try to keep that Win ratio above 60%
4. Try to work on exits (reasons to sell) & trading around a position
5. Screen recording to replay the action


Stats


Total Trades
12
% Winners

41.67%
Losers
7
ROI Losers

-$4.29
Winners
5
ROI Winners

$8.40
RR
1.96


APOL


LEN

*The above trades were meant as day trades only. There may have been other trades I called out on twitter that do not appear here because they were not intended as day trades & were taken in other accounts. Those are not covered in this analysis. Thank You.

Monday, January 10, 2011

011011: Day Trading Review: LDK, JASO, LVS, OVTI

Review/Analysis: Better trade execution in JDK but the other 3 were just scalps. See charts for breakdown & light commentary.


Goals


1. Trades to hold
2. Maintain a RR above 3 with +5 being ideal
3. Try to keep that Win ratio above 60%
4. Try to work on exits (reasons to sell) & trading around a position
5. Screen recording to replay the action


Stats 


Total Trades
6
% Winners
66.67%
Losers
2
ROI Losers
-$3.50
Winners
4
ROI Winners
$12.25
RR
3.50


LDK

JASO



LVS



OVTI



*The above trades were meant as day trades only. There may have been other trades I called out on twitter that do not appear here because they were not intended as day trades & were taken in other accounts. Those are not covered in this analysis. Thank You.

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Who says homebuilding is dead in real estate market over-saturated with supply?

Will be interesting to see if/how rising mortgage rates will affect housing in 2011 and beyond and if the Fed continues to QE to try to drive rates down.


XHB- Isn't the best gauge for pure homebuilders but is confirming strength in the industry
See the following link for holdings & details: http://etfdb.com/etf/XHB/holdings/



KBH- Nice post-earnings pop, watch for continuation like this above 15.50 on vol, next target is 18.


PHM- Watch for a B/O above 9 (200MA location & 38.2 fib retracement) enters into a vacuum and probably pops to 10 (50 fib retracement)


TOL- Watch for a B/O above 21 or 21.34 (Fri's hi) with first target being 23.65 



DHI- Like this above 13.25 (61.8 fib retracement) with a tight stop (25-30c) in case B/O fails. A push & hold above that level & it enters a vacuum could move to 15-15.50



Watch iPhone Suppliers on Verizon/Apple Announcement

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/02/more-iphone-supplier-investment-possibilities/
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10794899/iphone-4s-guts-10-suppliers-inside.html


AAPL- intraday look at the action post WSJ story announcement on Fri after the close looks like 340 coming Monday. Below are some iPhone suppliers who may react to the VZ/AAPL announcement. *If any of these names are incorrectly associated with the iPhone please feel free to correct me. Thank you.



BRCM- makes the touch screen control chip. Stock has put in a nice intraday rounded base now above 20EMA, bullish MACD cross setting up, 20/50MA cross setting up.




SWKS- hard to buy this straight up stock if you want to get in could try as close as possible to the 20EMA and stop out if it loses it




MRVL- produces the WiFi chip. The stock is at top of channel threatening to B/O of down channel TL res, bullish MACD cross setting up, semi's have been relatively strong lately. INTC reports Thursday so careful holding through their earnings.




LPL- long-term wedge forming, watch for a push above 18.5 on vol into thinner air



TQNT- hard to get into a good R/R here. Could try a B/O above Fri's hi 13.75 w/ a stop below Fri's low 13.08 but not sure where a good target would be.

Saturday, January 8, 2011

01/07/11: Day Trading Review: DO, LVS, TZA, RIG

Analysis: I wasn't watching the market the whole day and actually left with 2 hours in the trading day because I wasn't feeling good and didn't want to get chopped up into a Fri close. All in all today was a chopfest with the cleanest moves at the open & what looked like a short push into the close. Because of these market dynamics I'm glad I resisted trading midday and didn't get chopped up but I missed the clean opportunities into the close.


I was a little disappointed that I missed the BIDU 106 B/O trade which @openminded called out & prodded the twitter stream to take. Missed a quick scalp there but the choppy action early on left a sour taste and made me real hesitant to trade unless there was an excellent R/R.


Stats:



Winning percentage: 75%
ROI on Winners: 77.68
ROI on Losers: 21
ROI W/L: 3.70


Things to work on


1. More dedicated focus on market
2. Reasons to buy and sell (i.e. 20EMA violation)
3. More preparation 
4. Better entries & exits
5. Patience




TZA: Excellent trade here, was intended to hedge against a SPY sell-off and worked from the beginning, sold sum when the momo slowed but still held a core for a larger move and exited when it brok the 20EMA.



RIG: Good discipline. Was playing a bounce and was only willing to hold if that 70c level held and hit out appropriately when it broke probably could have tightened stop to 69c instead of 67c



LVS: No real reason to sell when I did, should have held at least until the 20EMA was broken or it lost the TL



DO: Not a bad trade here. Exited when it broke below the 20EMA & failed to hold VWAP. Just traded within a range for remainder of day. Will look to re-enter on Monday for continuation post GS upgrade.




*Sorry for any grammatical errors or proper English issues. This is meant more to be stream of consciousness and unfortunately I don't have time to refine drafts.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

01/06/11: Day Trading Review (DANG & RIMM)

Action/Analysis: not going to cover every trade I made today and just stick my main winner DANG for 64c. Once again left a lot on the table but would've been shaken out on a break of that TL sup. 


I didn't have too many losers and kept my stops tight. My biggest loser was RIMM when it temporarily lost 60 and hit out for a 17c loss. BUT the biggest miss came when I did not get back in once the stock popped off 60 to over 62 later in the day. So the RIMM miss was painful and should serve as a case study for a stock that was super strong the day before, faded at the open, came down to a key level from the previous day and the machines were turned on and kept the stock trending higher all day up to the previous day's high, basically a 2 pt loss.


DANG 







RIMM



Wednesday, January 5, 2011

01/05/11: Day Trading Review (AKAM, APKT, LVS, WYNN, AGU)

Today's action/analysis: Caught a few nice scalps today but missed most of the trends in most of the stocks I was in. I was caught completely off guard by the blowout jobs report which sent the market trending for the open and showed strength all day. Even though I've been able to have gains for the past 3 days it feels like I've lost money from being too uninvolved and underweight in my portfolio.  For the past few days my belief that the market is way too over-extended has mentally blocked and biased my interpretation of the bullish intraday price action. I am nowhere near my "zone". Right now I'm playing conservative protection first and offense second. 


**The great swell we're getting this week in SoCal is also acting as a constant distraction. Focus Daniel Son. :-)


Stats
Win Rate: 90%
ROI Losers: -33¢
ROI Winners: 29.00¢
R/R: .87


SPY








AKAM

APKT

WYNN


LVS

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Monday, January 3, 2011

01/03/11: Day Trading Review

Important contextual note: Haven't day traded on Lightspeed for about a month or been used to watching level 2 so today was just a day to get back into the saddle & finish positive for the day. 


Analysis: The market gapped up and provided some excellent strong trends in the stocks I was in but unfortunately my anxiousness and lack of confidence caused me to miss the BIG ones in REE, AAPL & MCP. LVS was a scratch trade where I lost about .03¢ net in 3 quick trades.


Things to work on: 


1. Trades to hold on strong trending In Play stocks & trending markets
2. At least 5 days of solid gains to increase tier size
3. Keep ROI on winners positive & try to get a 3/1 RR & gradually work up to the ideal 5/1 RR goal. Today's was 2.13
4.  Try to stick with a small basket of In Play stocks & focus
5. Try to keep winning percentage greater than 50% and increase to 65% target. Today was 71% win rate 


Trades below (minus LVS scratch trade):


REE





MCP


AAPL

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Finnies are setting up (setup, swing)

This could be a good week for the financials. 


GS, AIG & BLK look like best in breed. 


The conventionals also have nice setup but not expecting a BIG move in front of earnings season.


GS (bot weeklies on Friday)




AIG




BLK



BAC



JPM




WFC



C


MA


V


AXP