Monday, May 30, 2011

Weekly Swing Watchlist 053111-060311

ADTN- This is a marginal setup that has seen quiet distribution and no real blip in volume on the light bounce. Only watching for now. Will set a 44 alert just in case ADTN breaks above the base. MACD and RSI are holding flat.

IBD Profile:


BIDU- Chinese tech leaders (BIDU, SINA, SOHU) have been lagging the market but now may be the time to get in. BIDU held the 100 SMA, broke the DTL and the 23.6% fib. MACD is rounding and looking about to kiss, Stoch and RSI are heading up. Technically this is still a higher low. May look at an options spread on a dip back to 132-130 and stop out if it loses the 100 SMA or 125'ish.


CRR- I tried to catch a nice break on Friday and was up a full 2 points on the trade but it started to fail and was stopped out flat. Finally held support at the 5/8 EMA and fell back inside the DTL. This thin stock is tricky so may try to options instead of trading common. Ideally I would like to see MACD continue rounding up and kiss as well as RSI get back above 50. Could try to get long here as long as it held the lower TL on the hourly or the 50 SMA.


DECK- Back on the watchlist. Poked above doji string range but has not cleared recent high. Like this on a dip back to the 20 & 50 SMA around 89 with a stop under those MA's or possibly under the range low around 86.5 or you could set a looser stop under the TL. Setting a second alert for a break above 93.While MACD is in basement getting a cross and RSI is above 50.

30 minute

GENE- Sloppy flag with a bullish volume pattern post multi-month base/consolidation accumulation. Not my fav setup but will look to start a long on a break above TL resistance around 8.10 and add above 8.50 with a tight stop probably inside the wedge or the day's low when i take a position. Looking for 10+


IPCM- I want to keep this stock on my radar just in case we see sector rotation in healthcare. The volume during this recent pullback is less than the rising channel volume. I want to try to catch a breakout and go here with 51 as trigger and a stop inside the down channel around 50 looking for 55-56 top of up channel resistance. Ideally I want MACD to kiss and RSI up above 50.

MELI- Nice setup, bullish volume pattern, relatively strong along with weekend IBD article has this Latin American e-commerce name on the watchlist. Looks like it's about to get a bullish MACD kiss, along with RSI pushing above 50, Stoch are consolidating. I would prefer to try to pick up a starter position around 85 (TL & 50 SMA) support and add above the DTL break. Setting alerts for 85 & 89.5. The measured move from this wedge is about 10 points so my target would be determined wherever the break occurs.

IBD Article:


PLCM- Breaking out of down channel and now above the 5/8 EMA and the 20 SMA. Watching for continuation with MACD & RSI rounding up and bullish volume pattern holding. Looking to get involved on a dip back to the 5/8 EMA around 56 with a tight 1 point stop. Top of TL around 65 is target.


QCOM- Another recycled name from last week's watchlist. Still looks ripe for a break above consolidation wedge/flag. Right now it's above the 5/8 EMA's, 20 & 50 SMA's. RSI is holding above 50 while MACD is flagging. I already have a position via options but setting an alert for 58.5 may take common too on a breakout of range and wedge.


RAX- Another weekly favorite. Looks setup for higher prices. Strong close on Friday above the 5/8 EMA's and the 20 SMA. MACD kiss while RSI holding above 50 and sloping up. Not sure how I want to play this one but will look to buy common, calls or a vertical call spread on a dip to around 42.5 with a probable stop under 40 and an upside target of 48+


SCCO- The selling in copper may be done short-term as China looks poised to rev up the growth and consumption engine. This copper miner broke out of falling wedge on Friday and ran smack into the 50 SMA and 23.6% fib resistance. I may try to jump on this train around 36 which would be a PBTBO pattern and stop out if it lose the 5/8 EMA and the 20 SMA maybe a 1-1.5 point stop. My upside target would be 40+ (200 SMA and the 38.2% fib).


SFLY- I like this as long as it holds above the 50 SMA. Volume is extremely bullish and MACD is rounding up about to kiss with RSI holding over 50. Looking to get involved on a dip to around 55-54 with a 2-3 point stop and add on a breakout above 59.5 or top of base. First target would be around 66.


VRTX- Still pulling back on lower volume to TL support and the 50 SMA. Stalking a 52 entry with a 50 probable stop. Looking for at least 56 but and ideal target at 60 (UTL resistance). MACD and RSI suggest this may need a little more digestion time.


Sunday, May 29, 2011

Continuation Breakouts (52/All Time Highs)

Watch for dips to the 5 or 8 EMA's







Market Read for Week 05311-060311

SPY- We're at that DTL resistance again and depending on currency markets may be prime to break out. Recent heavier volume on down days, seasonality and the end of QE still has me cautiously bullish. Also look at last year's summer SPY sell-off to chopfest action (Inverted H&S). Still have a feeling that funds are quietly lightening the risk load with too much macro risk and no extension of the Ber-nanke put (so far). Even if we break out of falling channel we may be range-bound and stuck in some summer chop. The 100 SMA and DTL is currently acting as support. SPY is now above the 5/8 EMA and 50 SMA but below the 20 SMA. It also closed above the 50% fib. Would not be looking to buy aggressively here but watch the dollar and leading stocks for equity tells.

30 minute

SPY last summer's sell-off

QQQ- Tech is showing relative weakness as it is below it's 20 & 50 SMA's but back above the 100 SMA (not displayed). As you can see from the 30 minute chart its trying to push out of its down channel. The 50% fib is acting as recent support. Volume here looks suspect.

30 minutes

IWM/Small caps- Small caps are helping the bullish case by appearing to have broken out of the falling down channel and closing above the 20 & 50 SMA's. *RUT is less clear about the DTL B/O The lighter volume here is a non-confirm (discounting Friday's anemic holiday volume). MACD looks like its about to kiss.


RUT-X hourly

DXY0/USDX/DX_F/Dollar- Nice bear flag breakdown on soft US econ news giving equities a nice boost. The dollar looks like it has further weakness ahead of it as MACD and RSI turning down. However, we need to see if the dollar can muster a higher low or lower low here and/or consolidate. Volume still leaning bullish short-term.


HG_F/Copper- Looks like investors are beginning to bet on China's global growth story here with copper holding the TL and breaking out of falling down channel. With global inflation cooling or at least stabilizing it appears that China will continue to let it's yuan appreciate perhaps more rapidly, increasing their buying power and transition to a consumption economy.

ZB_F/Long Bond (30-year)- After putting in a nice consolidation base the long bond is now flagging beneath the 200 SMA. Treasuries' strength may be attributed to seasonality but also may be signaling more coming volatility in equities. I don't follow bonds or the treasury markets so I have no real edge here.

XOIL/CL_F/Crude- Looks like a nice consolidation base being built here just hanging around 100. MACD has kissed with the 20 SMA acting as resistance. Gun to head think this sees 105 (50% fib) before it sees 95 again (recent low support).

Crude VIX

GC_F/XGLD/Gold- Leading the commodity space. Bullish MACD kiss and above all major MA's.


SI_F/XSLV/Silver- Similar to crude silver is building a nice base holding above TL support with the 50 SMA and 38.2% fib as resistance. I like how it has crossed and is holding above the 5/8EMA's as well as the 20 SMA. We're seeing a bullish MACD kiss with RSI over 50. *have position in SLV


VIX- Moving sideways in the long-term descending triangle. No edge here.

McClellan Oscillator/T2106- Broke out of descending triangle last week confirming the bounce. No edge here.