Sunday, May 8, 2011

Market Read for Week 050911-051311

SPY- We're in the middle of the up channel, below the 5/8EMA, still above the 20MA, hanging right around 61.8% fib, we're getting a bearish MACD kiss and Stoch have already rolled over. No real bias right here right now but thinking we see 132.50'ish around the 38.2% fib and the 50MA.  Keep an eye on the dollar for equity direction tell.

30 minute

QQQ- Tech is relatively strong as it still at top of range, above the 5/8EMA and above the 20MA. If we continue to pullback watch for the 20MA and the TL to act as support around  58.

IWM- Small cap has been a market leader and we finally have seen a sharp sell-off coinciding with this week's risk "OFF" theme. It is holding the 50MA but lost the 5/8EMA and the 20MA. MACD lost the bearish rising wedge and got a bearish cross.

DX_F/DXY0/USDX/Dollar- It's all about the dollar stupid and this high volume rip walloped the carry trade on Thursday and continued it's march on Friday. Next stop is the 50MA around 75.40. *Have a position via UUP.



CL_F/Crude- A lil overdone IMO but still in an bullish uptrend on the weekly. Probably sees 90 soon but I'm in the Goldman camp that after this sell-off/pullback crude will continue it's uptrend. Sitting around the 100MA. The volatility in crude went hyperbolic.



Crude VIX

HG_F/Copper- This leading market indicator continues to show relative weakness. Broke down last week lost the 4.08 support and now looks vulnerable to losing the 200MA. BUT... look at the weekly still in bullish uptrend.



VIX- Failed breakdown and strong reversal. But we're still not seeing the "OMG the sky is falling" fear protection buying. Still in desc tri.

McClellan Oscillator- That overbot indicator foreshadowed this week's pullback.

Gold- Holding up well compared to other precious metals. Held the TL sup but looks vulnerable with a bearish MACD cross and RSI flirting with 50. If the dollar keeps ripping watch for this one to continue to pullback. Gold VIX saw a hyperbolic uptrend. BUT... on the weekly still in bullish uptrend



Gold VIX

Silver- we all know about silver. BUT... still in bullish uptrend on weekly



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