032712: ES Failed F U Move & NQ strong until EOD

Warning signs were:

- ES could not get above globex VWAP

- ES delta was weak all day sub 0

- ADVN-DECN was weak all day (chopping around 0 line)

- TRIN was strong

- VIX was strong all day

- ZB uptrending all day

- Finnies were weak (BAC d/g)

Conflicting signs were:

- NQ uptrend almost all day

- AAPL AMZN strong almost all day except EOD

- TICK strong all day except EOD

- prior day saw a massive F U squeeze rally in the final hour

News impact:

econ news

7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 Budget Hearing (Geithner)
10:00 Hearing: Fed’s aid to Eurozone (Dudley)
12:35 PM Fed’s Rosengren: Economic Outlook
12:45 PM Bernanke: ‘The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis’
3:45 PM Fed’s Duke: ‘Building Sustainable Communities’

ES

NQ

Internals

Futures & Stocks

Metals & Futures

Footprint

Vanity Fair: What’s Eating Steve Cohen?

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/07/steve-cohen-201007

Luv this motivational presentation from Howard Lindzon

1. Make less mistakes
2. Accelerate when you're right

VVUS next leg this week?

Above 22 could wake up the herd

*Disclaimer: long 20

Weekly

Daily

Bullish or bearish into next week?

SPX

30 minute

NQ

30 minute

TF

4 hour

30 minute

YM

4 hour

AAPL 600 a top?

Today's AAPL's weak close was interesting so I wanted to see where it's at:

*I have no AAPL position but I own a handful of QQQ puts that I started today.

Weekly

Is this a reversal Star Position in the making candle pattern?

Daily

Is this a gravestone doji candle today?

30 minute

Bumping up against resistance but still managed to close above 600. The next few days will give more clues as to whether AAPL will begin to pullback and where buyers will step in.

Market Snapshot 032012

It has been a long time since I did a market review but given our unstoppable run I wanted to see where we currently stand. Since my focus is now day trading futures this kind of daily research really isn't relevant to my approach. 

Markets continue to be risk on whatever (dollar up down euro up down) all dips continue to be bought. We are still not seeing sustained selling (opens are sold but closes like today are not) and AAPL sub 600 continues to be bought. Financials (XLF) is seeing sector rotation and leading. McClellan Oscillator shows we are way from overbought. Bonds are beginning to perk up out of their bases. And as I write this ES is up 5 points off 1400... So BTD lives on.

Here are some charts I'm looking at:

SPY

Weekly

Day

Hourly

QQQ

Monthly

Weekly

Day

30 minute

IWM

Week

Day

Hourly

Dollar

XLF

Weekly

Daily

VIX

McClellan Oscillator

Bonds

30 Yr Yield

TBT

Weekly

Futures Trading: thru 3rd week March 2012 Stats

- Total Trades: 109 (49 for this week) *includes scalps

- Win Rate: 57% (57% long/63% short)
- Payoff Ratio (Win/Loss Size Ratio or Expectation) : 1.05
- Expectancy: 41.95
- Total "R" (Total Amount Gained/Lost in terms of Risk Units): 72.57
- Avg "R" (Avg Risk Gained/Lost): .7
- Error Rate: 5% (5 trade all scratched)

030912: NFP Recap

ES_F

NQ_F

US Econ Calendar:

Fri Mar 09		Release	Impact	For	Actual	Expected	Prior
8:30 AM		Nonfarm Payrolls		Feb	227K	206K	284K
8:30 AM		Nonfarm Private Payrolls		Feb	233K	220K	285K
8:30 AM		Unemployment Rate		Feb	8.3%	8.3%	8.3%
8:30 AM		Hourly Earnings		Feb	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
8:30 AM		Average Workweek		Feb	34.5	34.5	34.5
8:30 AM		Trade Balance		Jan	-$52.6B	-$48.2B	-$50.4B
10:00 AM		Wholesale Inventories		Jan	0.4%	0.6%	1.1%

*Bloomberg news: ISDA rumor of Greek CDS trigger around 12:20PM:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/isda-finds-greek-credit-event-has-occurred-reports-bloomberg

ES Stats (refer to spreadsheet for more stats & details):

Open: 62.25
Daily ES Range: 6.25 (12 avg)
DL: 1360.5
DH: 1368.75
DM: 1364.75
ONVPOC: 60
IBL: 60.5
IBH: 66.75
ONR: 9.5 (10 avg)
ONH: 67
ONL: 57.5