Memorial Weekend Market Update 052912

Observations:

-SPX & NDX closing in on the 200SMA on daily, wedging at the 24% fib (RUT bounced is above it's 200SMA)

-Dollar broke out and is uptrending toward 84, RSI is 82.3

-Crude sitting on 90 UTL support on the weekly

-TLT triple top? Also negative divergences at this retest

- AAPL at DTL resistance will need for it to break up and hold 50% fib (570) for any meaningful rally in the markets with next resistance around 580-582.

- VIX is uptrending holding above 20

-McClellan Oscillator is down trending

SPX (Daily, 30 minute)

NDX (Daily, 30 minute)

RUT-X (Daily, 30 minute)

Dollar (Daily)

Crude (Daily)

TLT (Weekly, Daily)

Gold (Daily)

AAPL (Daily, 30 minute)

Shanghai Composite (Daily)

VIX (Daily)

McClellan Oscillator

Market Impasse 051312

Just some weekend homework/observations:

- Still down channel flagging action on SPX & NDX
- RUT still has the H&S or possible descending triangle
- SPX having trouble getting above 23.6% fib
- Looking like weak bear flags on the major indexes
- AAPL keeps sliding along previous down channel and now forming what looks like a bear flag
- XLF sub 15 (thank you JPM)
- Dollar at crucial down trend resistance
- EURUSD looks like double bottom (January lows) coming sub 1.27000
- VIX approaching 20 resistance

SPX (Daily, 30 minute)

NDX (Daily, 30 minute)

RUT (Daily, 30 minute)

AAPL (Daily, 30 minute)

XLF (Daily, Hourly)

Dollar (Daily)

EURUSD (Daily)

VIX (Daily)

McClellan Oscillator (Daily)

032712: ES Failed F U Move & NQ strong until EOD

Warning signs were:

- ES could not get above globex VWAP

- ES delta was weak all day sub 0

- ADVN-DECN was weak all day (chopping around 0 line)

- TRIN was strong

- VIX was strong all day

- ZB uptrending all day

- Finnies were weak (BAC d/g)

Conflicting signs were:

- NQ uptrend almost all day

- AAPL AMZN strong almost all day except EOD

- TICK strong all day except EOD

- prior day saw a massive F U squeeze rally in the final hour

News impact:

econ news

7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 Budget Hearing (Geithner)
10:00 Hearing: Fed’s aid to Eurozone (Dudley)
12:35 PM Fed’s Rosengren: Economic Outlook
12:45 PM Bernanke: ‘The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis’
3:45 PM Fed’s Duke: ‘Building Sustainable Communities’

ES

NQ

Internals

Futures & Stocks

Metals & Futures

Footprint

Market Snapshot 032012

It has been a long time since I did a market review but given our unstoppable run I wanted to see where we currently stand. Since my focus is now day trading futures this kind of daily research really isn't relevant to my approach. 

Markets continue to be risk on whatever (dollar up down euro up down) all dips continue to be bought. We are still not seeing sustained selling (opens are sold but closes like today are not) and AAPL sub 600 continues to be bought. Financials (XLF) is seeing sector rotation and leading. McClellan Oscillator shows we are way from overbought. Bonds are beginning to perk up out of their bases. And as I write this ES is up 5 points off 1400... So BTD lives on.

Here are some charts I'm looking at:

SPY

Weekly

Day

Hourly

QQQ

Monthly

Weekly

Day

30 minute

IWM

Week

Day

Hourly

Dollar

XLF

Weekly

Daily

VIX

McClellan Oscillator

Bonds

30 Yr Yield

TBT

Weekly