Saturday, April 30, 2011

Market Read for Week 050211-050911

 This week's theme "Climbing the Wall of Worry".

Check last week's market read and the theme "Match in gas tank BOOM BOOM".

SPY- Officially broke out this week and ran into the vacuum. The measured move target out of the Inverse Head & Shoulders is around 138-139 and we're not that far from there.

Daily chart

Daily chart

QQQ- Tech's pennant/ slanted Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern complete now flagging out at 59 high still holding above 5 & 8EMA.

IWM- Supporting market's bullish risk on case as small caps continue to march upward in an up channel. 90 is still next target.

DX_F/Dollar- It's the dollar stupid and it's providing a mighty fine tailwind to equities. Looks like 72 is the next destination and then possibly 71.30. Looks like the only catalytic event that could get the dollar to change trends is a fundamental change in the Fed's easy money policy (QE) which should come to end in June but the markets so far seem unconvinced.

Weekly chart

Daily chart

CL_F/Crude- 115 on deck consolidating at upper Bollinger Band. Looks like crude inventory reports are confirming that Americans seem to be adjusting to higher gas prices just in time for summer season. Prices at the pump don't matter until they do.

Crude VIX- holding 30 neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern, still not seeing fear protection buying with crude aiming for 115 & then 120.

HG_F/Copper- Copper seems to have lost it's leading market indicator status.

GC_F/Gold- Parabolic

SI_F/Silver-Finding sellers at 50 and dip buyers at 45.

VIX- Lost 15 support still in a down channel.

McClellan Oscillator- Getting close to overbought levels. Just another brick in the wall.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Weekly Swing Watchlist 042511-042911

 "I could go at anytime." ~Arnie from What's Eating Gilbert Grape"

*These are not in alphabetical order and please excuse any shorthand and grammatical errors.

APKT- Reports 4/26/11 A/H. Expecting a possible push into earnings and if other tech earnings are any indication think we may see more strength post-earnings. Still holding my vertical bull call spread which I sold half for +50%. Still holding last half.

ANF- Tried to push & hold above 70 on Friday but failed and fell back into top half of consolidation range or bull flag. Looks like B/O is coming soon and the longer this thing bases out the more bullish my upside target becomes. Looking at May OTM calls or 72.5/75 call spread. Reports 5/17/11 P/M.

AEM- Broke TL on Thursday and ran into 23.6% Fib Ret resistance. Like getting involved on a dip to 5/8 EMA or even 20MA. Upside targets would be 72.5 or 38.2% Fib Ret (like how these things perfectly line up sometimes). Looking at May 72.5 call option.

BSFT- broke out of down channel on the daily, now above all MA's. Bullish volume pattern, all indicators (Stoch, OBV, RSI, Stoch RSI) are supporting higher prices. MACD rounding up and beginning to converge. Like this on a dip to 45-44.5 with probably a 1 pt stop. Looking for 50+. Reports 5/9/11 P/M

IMAX- Reports 4/28/11 P/M. Watch for pre-run and/or post-run.

JDSU- Held the 18 pinned at 20 on Friday. Watching for a dip to 20MA or 19'ish with a stop below 18. Would luv to see this base down here in a Stage 2 accumulation for a while between 18-20 setting up for another leg up. Looking for top of TL or 38.2% Fib around 21. All indicators beginning to turn up. Reports 5/4/11 A/H.

GRMN- Nice long-term bullish consolidation flag inside a desc tri. BB are getting super tight with 5/8/20/50 MA's all converging. Expecting a break from this tight pattern soon. The short interest would probably mean a nice run when it goes. All indicators beginning to wake up also. But if it fails probably want to take off quickly because it could fall back down to TL support which is a ways away. Reports 5/4/11 P/M.

GPOR- PD&C (Pop Drop & Chop) pattern. Holding above 50MA in this base. May nibble on a drip to 32 with a stop around 30 and then add on a push above 34 or the 20MA. Stoch & MACD starting to turn up. Reports 5/5/11 P/M.

FNSR- Possible gap fill still on deck. Reports 5/9/11 A/H.

IPCM- Nice bullish base on the 20MA with 50MA as solid support. RSI is a bit concerning but Stoch and MACD seem to be turning up. Watching... Reports 4/27/11 A/H.

MSM- Like this rounded base above the 20MA.Stoch and Stoch RSI starting to show an upturn in momentum. Setting alert for 71 right at the top of the base. Looking to get in around 71-70 with a stop below 69.51. Reports 5/30/11 P/M.

RAX- Thursday's inverted hammer candle looked a little portentous but Friday's candle completely countered that. If this B/O holds think this new trend is just getting started. Think this sees 50 soon. I already have a bull May vertical call spread but will probably trade stock on any B/O above 44.88 with the short interest pointing to an upcoming explosion move. Reports 5/09/11 A/H.

RBCN- This chop below 28.5 had me concerned as well as the ridonculous short float but after seeing the weekly I'm more bullish but may look towards options to play the possible wild swings in this consolidation base. Reports 5/5/11 A/H.

RBCN Weekly shows the Cup & Handle

SGG- Been stalking this down channel for a while. Still watching... Sugar futures show a gap to fill.


SOHU- Reports Monday 5/25/11 P/M.

WFMI- Foodie stocks continue to hold up as CMG despite not so hot earnings held the 20MA as well as MCD. This hippie turned yuppie market leader looks poised. Looks like 70 is coming out of this 5 point base. Looking for a dip to 5/8 EMA or even 20MA around 65. Reports 5/04/11 A/H.

WLL- Like this on a dip to 70 or bottom of TL support with a tight stop. Could fall to 50MA and still technically be in an uptrend. Stoch & MACD starting to turn up while RSI is flattening out. Reports 4/27/11 A/H.

*This list was compiled on 5/22/11.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Market Read for Week 042511-042911

"Match in the gas tank BOOM BOOM"

SPY- There's that Inverted H&S on the daily. We're still finding sellers above 134 and failing to get cleanly through it. What I would love to see is for us to chop around, base and possibly dip to 133 or lower to build up ramrod energy to break that 134 neckline. But we must be prepared for anything. Overall it looks like we're setting up for higher prices. As long as the dollar can't catch a sustainable bid, there's no real love for bonds, etc... dips should be bought.

15 minute shows the gappy last 3 days in the market.

QQQ- Just when it looked like tech was starting to flash portentous signs for the market we get AAPL, IBM and cloud ignition. Tech looks like it wants higher with bullish MACD cross, Stoch and RSI confirming strength.

IWM (RUT)- Small cap continue to outperform and lead the market up. The Russell is still in up channel, Stoch& Stoch RSI cross turning up, MACD convergence, RSI pointing up, above all MA's with 5/8/20 acting as support. Looks like top of channel is next target.

VIX- Lost 15, just another brick in the wall and supporting the bullish case.

McClellan Oscillator- Intermediate trend is showing lower highs as the market looks like its becoming more and more choosy.

30-Treasury (ZB_F)- Range-bound. From a TA standpoint this looks like a Stage 1 Accumulation base but with the Fed's POMO who knows if this is setting up for a Stage 2 Markup. As Bill Gross and now Jim Rogers ask "who will be there to buy US treasuries once the Fed stops" if the Fed ever stops. 

Dollar (DX_F/UUP): Still in downtrend hit support and got a small Friday bounce. Still trying to catch this falling knife. Bot 1/2 a position in UUP with a tight stop if it loses 21.19 or TL support.


DX_F 15 minute

Crude (CL_F)-  If we continue to get bullish inventory reports which we may very well given seasonality effects I think we may see $120 before we see $100 WTI.

Crude VIX (OVX-X)- Still no real signs of fear or protection buying against long positions in crude options.

Copper (HG_F)- Range-bound

Emerging World Markets (EEM)- Global growth story looks strong as emerging markets look like they're bringing up the rear tailwind

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Market Read & Weekly Watchlist 041811-042211

SPY- I spy an Inv H&S "The Captain Obvious" setup forming here on the daily. Talked about this likely development in last blog entry shall see if this pattern follows through with all the event headline risks coming to the fore from earnings, Washington's budget showdown, crude showing no slowing down, housing rolling back over & finnies confirming this trend, GDP downward revisions, the end of US QE, etc...

If we can't clear 132.4'ish (23.6% Fib) & break out of the box think we chop around in this range a lil more. If we clear probably going to retest 133 & then above that 134.


RUT- Starting to look like yet another higher low and continuing to act as a bullish leading market indicator.

USDX/Dollar (DX_F)- The Carry trade continues as crude, gold, silver, other commodities remain strong. Coming up on 74.40;ish lows from Dec 2010. Will probably test that this week. Think we see a bounce there.

VIX: Back in the basement.

McClellan Oscillator- No real edge here.

Absolute Breadth- Stockpicker's market.

Crude (CL_F)- Spectacular summer weather hit this weekend in SoCal and seeing more cars on the road headed for the beach or just moving around. Seasonality now beginning to drive crude higher. Don't expect Libya to resolve anytime soon as NATO leaders have formally announced that it's do or die Gaddafi.

Crude VIX- Crude "No Fear" HT @stevenplace

Copper (HG_F)- Probably due to China's recent PMI report and investors anticipating continued tightening to cool inflation.

Weekly Watchlist
*Earnings season is upon us so be sure to check announcement dates & other sector related names for their dates.

AAPL- Sitting on long-term TL. All indicators in the basement of oversold for this market leader. Reports 4/20/11 A/H.

SWKS- Watch for a reaction from SWKS once AAPL announces. If its positive this stock could really bounce off this 26 support. Targets on the chart are fib ret & TL res. Looking for 30. Reports 4/28/11 A/H.

APKT- Recycled name from previous weekly watchlist. Still setting up Tight consolidation. My May bull call spread still working. Reports 4/26/11 A/H.

JDSU- Looks like its basing above 18. 20MA and TL (see the 30min chart) are resistance. Trigger is around 19 with a stop if it loses 18. Looking for a move to at least 22 (38.2% Fib Ret) which is also gap resistance or TL. Reports 5/5/11 A/H.

GOOG- Knife catch here. There's a long-term ascending triangle TL support line coming up soon around 520 & then 510 is a support level. Already reported on Friday 04/15/11.

AEM- Similar to JDSU looking for this 64 level to hold and get a bounce. 20MA is res & then you have TL. Would like to see it spin sideways and build a base. Reports 4/28/11 P/M

VRTX- Nice pennant/wedge forming on the daily, BB pinching, top of watchlist. Reports 5/3/11 A/H

CRR- Nice push off the 50MA on Friday, like to try to get in this on a dip to 128.5 if it comes that low. Stoch cross, Stoch RSI & RSI all beginning to turn up. Reports 4/28/11 P/M

UA- Nice pennant/wedge forming on the daily, 75 is my trigger with maybe a 1pt stop looking for 80+ first target. Reports 4/26/11 P/M

MGM- This casino has 14.5 written all over it if can clear 14 on volume. Stoch, MACD and RSI support higher prices. A clearance above 14 has less congestion. Going to have to wait until after WYNN reports on Tuesday 04/19/11. Looks like they're jamming WYNN to all-time highs into earnings. MGM reports 5/5/11 P/M

BTU- Support bounce play here off the 100MA & TL sup. Reports 4/19/11 P/M. Will wait until after earnings to see which way it break either that's a bear flag or a base setting up. 

CAT- Support bounce off the 50MA. Would like to see it base down here for a few more days between this short-term 106-108. Looking for a dip back to 107-106.5 with a stop just below 106 looking for at least 110+. Reports 4/29/11 P/M.

FOSL- Breakout play here with nice range consolidation at the highs. Looks like 95 is resistance with 91 bottom of the range support. Think if this goes see the 100 roll soon. Certain retail names have continued to show strength. Reports 5/10/11 P/M.