Sunday, April 10, 2011

Weekly Swing Watchlist 041111-041511

SPY: Play the range until we break out or down. If we break down still watching for possible inv H&S on the daily (130 & 131) which also coincide with Fib levels

possible Inv H&S on daily:

QQQ or NDX-X: We see a possible inv H&S forming on the daily on both the triple Q's or the Nasdaq 100:

IWM: Small cap stocks are rolling over and we could see a pullback to breakout setup forming here. MACD, Stoch, OBV, RSI, last 2 days volume, etc... are all pointing to a dip.

USDX: The dollar still looks weak and likely to retest Dec 09 lows around 74.23.

CL_F: What can you say? Bullish but...

As @stevenplace pointed out that we did an accompany spike in the crude vix as it looks like crude longs are now wanting protection into this strong upmove.

HG_F: Copper futures broke out of pennant/wedge and closed above 4.5. China is now looking stronger as well as EEM's. Dollar weakness contributing to carry trade continuation.

Weekly Watchlist

JDSU: Still watching for a 18 bounce or if we get above the 20MA and hold may look at a long with 19 as the stop. Still looks vulnerable but could be basing and through time could be ready for a bounce.

CSTR: Stalking for that gap fill. Entries are above Friday's high 49.36 on volume or around 47.5-46.5 (P/B to B/O) above that consolidation range. Already into thinner air or the "vacuum". May also look at a May 50/55 call spread.

APKT: Was on my weekly watchlist 2 weeks ago. Booked a double on my April call spreads looking for a reload here clear stops under 20/50MA. MACD still looks bullish, volatility pinching, looks like a nice launchpad. Right here right now looking stops out if it loses 69 or 50MA: VERTICAL APKT 100 MAY 11 77.5/80 CALL @.80 LMT. Has earnings on 4/16/11 AH.

TOS Analytics:

FNSR: Nice rounded base, flagging out, would ideally like to see it consolidate and see accumulation below the 27.19 gap fill B/O level. 

TCK: Flagging out in-between 50 & 61.8% Fib Retracement levels. Would like to see a dip to the 20MA to get involved with a target to 63.

RAX: All eyes on RAX probably the best looking setup coming into this week. Hasn't flinched during the choppy range action in the markets. Like this on a volume break above 43.5 & then above 44.19 with stops just under the consolidation range around 42. I like the VERTICAL RAX 100 MAY 11 46/47 CALL @.30 LMT. Probably a fire & forget options trade.

Josh Brown @thereformedbrokers take on RAX:

TOS Analytics:

CHK: Chart says it all. I'm in it to win it.

TRLG: Would like to see it flag out and consolidate. Watching

SGG: Support bounce play here. Watching to see if Sugar holds 25 (see futures chart below)

AAPL & GS for moves into earnings season

AAPL: reports on 4/20/11 AH. Has run into earnings for the last 2 yrs

GS: reports 4/19/11 PM. Also has a pattern of running into earnings

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