Saturday, April 23, 2011

Market Read for Week 042511-042911

"Match in the gas tank BOOM BOOM"

SPY- There's that Inverted H&S on the daily. We're still finding sellers above 134 and failing to get cleanly through it. What I would love to see is for us to chop around, base and possibly dip to 133 or lower to build up ramrod energy to break that 134 neckline. But we must be prepared for anything. Overall it looks like we're setting up for higher prices. As long as the dollar can't catch a sustainable bid, there's no real love for bonds, etc... dips should be bought.

15 minute shows the gappy last 3 days in the market.

QQQ- Just when it looked like tech was starting to flash portentous signs for the market we get AAPL, IBM and cloud ignition. Tech looks like it wants higher with bullish MACD cross, Stoch and RSI confirming strength.

IWM (RUT)- Small cap continue to outperform and lead the market up. The Russell is still in up channel, Stoch& Stoch RSI cross turning up, MACD convergence, RSI pointing up, above all MA's with 5/8/20 acting as support. Looks like top of channel is next target.

VIX- Lost 15, just another brick in the wall and supporting the bullish case.

McClellan Oscillator- Intermediate trend is showing lower highs as the market looks like its becoming more and more choosy.

30-Treasury (ZB_F)- Range-bound. From a TA standpoint this looks like a Stage 1 Accumulation base but with the Fed's POMO who knows if this is setting up for a Stage 2 Markup. As Bill Gross and now Jim Rogers ask "who will be there to buy US treasuries once the Fed stops" if the Fed ever stops. 

Dollar (DX_F/UUP): Still in downtrend hit support and got a small Friday bounce. Still trying to catch this falling knife. Bot 1/2 a position in UUP with a tight stop if it loses 21.19 or TL support.


DX_F 15 minute

Crude (CL_F)-  If we continue to get bullish inventory reports which we may very well given seasonality effects I think we may see $120 before we see $100 WTI.

Crude VIX (OVX-X)- Still no real signs of fear or protection buying against long positions in crude options.

Copper (HG_F)- Range-bound

Emerging World Markets (EEM)- Global growth story looks strong as emerging markets look like they're bringing up the rear tailwind

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