Sunday, April 17, 2011

Market Read & Weekly Watchlist 041811-042211

SPY- I spy an Inv H&S "The Captain Obvious" setup forming here on the daily. Talked about this likely development in last blog entry shall see if this pattern follows through with all the event headline risks coming to the fore from earnings, Washington's budget showdown, crude showing no slowing down, housing rolling back over & finnies confirming this trend, GDP downward revisions, the end of US QE, etc...

If we can't clear 132.4'ish (23.6% Fib) & break out of the box think we chop around in this range a lil more. If we clear probably going to retest 133 & then above that 134.


RUT- Starting to look like yet another higher low and continuing to act as a bullish leading market indicator.

USDX/Dollar (DX_F)- The Carry trade continues as crude, gold, silver, other commodities remain strong. Coming up on 74.40;ish lows from Dec 2010. Will probably test that this week. Think we see a bounce there.

VIX: Back in the basement.

McClellan Oscillator- No real edge here.

Absolute Breadth- Stockpicker's market.

Crude (CL_F)- Spectacular summer weather hit this weekend in SoCal and seeing more cars on the road headed for the beach or just moving around. Seasonality now beginning to drive crude higher. Don't expect Libya to resolve anytime soon as NATO leaders have formally announced that it's do or die Gaddafi.

Crude VIX- Crude "No Fear" HT @stevenplace

Copper (HG_F)- Probably due to China's recent PMI report and investors anticipating continued tightening to cool inflation.

Weekly Watchlist
*Earnings season is upon us so be sure to check announcement dates & other sector related names for their dates.

AAPL- Sitting on long-term TL. All indicators in the basement of oversold for this market leader. Reports 4/20/11 A/H.

SWKS- Watch for a reaction from SWKS once AAPL announces. If its positive this stock could really bounce off this 26 support. Targets on the chart are fib ret & TL res. Looking for 30. Reports 4/28/11 A/H.

APKT- Recycled name from previous weekly watchlist. Still setting up Tight consolidation. My May bull call spread still working. Reports 4/26/11 A/H.

JDSU- Looks like its basing above 18. 20MA and TL (see the 30min chart) are resistance. Trigger is around 19 with a stop if it loses 18. Looking for a move to at least 22 (38.2% Fib Ret) which is also gap resistance or TL. Reports 5/5/11 A/H.

GOOG- Knife catch here. There's a long-term ascending triangle TL support line coming up soon around 520 & then 510 is a support level. Already reported on Friday 04/15/11.

AEM- Similar to JDSU looking for this 64 level to hold and get a bounce. 20MA is res & then you have TL. Would like to see it spin sideways and build a base. Reports 4/28/11 P/M

VRTX- Nice pennant/wedge forming on the daily, BB pinching, top of watchlist. Reports 5/3/11 A/H

CRR- Nice push off the 50MA on Friday, like to try to get in this on a dip to 128.5 if it comes that low. Stoch cross, Stoch RSI & RSI all beginning to turn up. Reports 4/28/11 P/M

UA- Nice pennant/wedge forming on the daily, 75 is my trigger with maybe a 1pt stop looking for 80+ first target. Reports 4/26/11 P/M

MGM- This casino has 14.5 written all over it if can clear 14 on volume. Stoch, MACD and RSI support higher prices. A clearance above 14 has less congestion. Going to have to wait until after WYNN reports on Tuesday 04/19/11. Looks like they're jamming WYNN to all-time highs into earnings. MGM reports 5/5/11 P/M

BTU- Support bounce play here off the 100MA & TL sup. Reports 4/19/11 P/M. Will wait until after earnings to see which way it break either that's a bear flag or a base setting up. 

CAT- Support bounce off the 50MA. Would like to see it base down here for a few more days between this short-term 106-108. Looking for a dip back to 107-106.5 with a stop just below 106 looking for at least 110+. Reports 4/29/11 P/M.

FOSL- Breakout play here with nice range consolidation at the highs. Looks like 95 is resistance with 91 bottom of the range support. Think if this goes see the 100 roll soon. Certain retail names have continued to show strength. Reports 5/10/11 P/M. 

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