blackmarkt-trader: August 2011

Sorry I haven't been doing this lately. My trading approach is more concentrated to intraday time periods so reviewing market activity daily is no longer necessary. I wanted to take a snapshot of where we are right now.

With many people calling for a bottom and just as many calling for more downside I wanted to see which case may hold more water. It feels like the market is in an epic tug of war with the bulls seizing control for an entire day and then handing off to the bears the following. The binary action is creating volatility which is great for intraday traders like myself who like to sleep at night knowing that they're not exposed to any overnight risk but creating all sorts of conflicting headaches for anyone with longer-term holding periods.

Overall I'm more neutral to short biased unless this wedge turns bullish and we stay above the 20 SMA for an extended period. I don't see edge after reviewing the charts this weekend and I don't see any evidence of an "all clear" signal or clarity appearing on the horizon with the can kicking still commencing. Sellers may remain put until there is more decisive information about where the global economy is headed and what policymakers are willing to do if anything.

While I like looking at this information I acknowledge first and foremost that my analysis lags and is not a reliable tell for future market direction (timeframe dependent).

Bullish case:

- Tech is still outperforming the rest of the market

- EURUSD looks like it has 1.50-1.52 written all over it with this consolidation base pattern

- Crude looks like it could see 90 before it sees sub 80 (hold)

- Gold topping process (margin hikes, main street activity, etc...)?

- McClellan Oscillator shows that we are neither overbought or oversold

- AAPL is relatively strong breaking above 20 SMA on Friday (where Apple goes the market follows)

Bearish case:

- Dollar looks range-bound 73.5-76.2 and putting in a base

- Below 20, 50 & 200 SMA

- 20/50 SMA Death Cross on daily

- Copper looks like its forming a bearish rising wedge