Thursday, May 3, 2012

ES Daily Plan 050312


Initial Claims beat 365k v. 375k expected. Last week's were revised higher to 392k.

European stocks are moderately higher today with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.82%. Bullish factors for European stocks include positive earnings news from Societe Generale and BMW and successsful bond auctions today in Spain and France. Spain today sold 2.52 billion euros of bonds, more than the maximum target. The successful auction caused the Spanish 5-year bond yield to drop by 7 bp to 4.70% and 10-year bond yield to drop by 3 bp to 5.82%. This was Spain's first bond auction since S&P last week cut Spain's bond rating by two notches to BBB+ from A. Today' March Eurozone PPI report of +0.5% m/m and +3.3% was weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m and +3.4% y/y, which was positive for the Eurozone inflation outlook. The consensus was that French President Sarkozy in his debate last night with challenger Socialist Party chief Francois Hollande failed to land a knockout blow and now risks losing Sunday's presidential election since he is trailing by about 6 points in the p olls. The markets are awaiting word on the outcome of today's ECB meeting. The unanimous market consensus is that the ECB at today's meeting will leave its refinancing rate unchanged at 1.00%.

Open Type

Opening Out of Range (5:32AM)

Trade Scenarios

RTH PP: 1395
Globex PP: 1397.25

Bull/Bear Line: 90 *but 1400 was key for bulls

- Longs: 95-94 (ON support), 93, 90-89 with upside targets 1400, 1403, 1408

- Shorts: 1403, 1408-1410 with targets 1396, 1393 & 1390

Econ Calendar

Today's economic calendar:
Chain Store Sales
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Productivity and Costs
9:00 Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
11:00 Fed's Plosser: 'Economic Forecast Project 2012'
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet 

May 3
01:30Currency: gbpGBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR)Medium53.354.155.3
02:00Currency: eurEUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)Medium0.5%0.6%0.6%
02:00Currency: eurEUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)High3.3%3.4%3.6%
Currency: eurEUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (MAY 3)High1.00%1.00%1.00%
Currency: usdUSD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (APR)Medium55.356
18:30Currency: audAUD Reserve Bank Board - Statement of Monetary PolicyHigh
ES (3 minute, Daily) 




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