Tuesday, May 8, 2012

State of the Market 050812

*Disclaimer: I'm net long but hedged.

Seeing a lot of bearish sentiment on the stream today while ES trading under 1350 which perfectly set up the late day rally and short squeeze back into yesterday's range. We may still see Sunday's lows around 42 near-term but it feels like the market is trying to bounce. Now that everyone sees the captain obvious H&S in Russell looks like a good spot to capitulate.

Some constructive (not necessarily bullish) signs I saw today were:

- ES closed strong, above 1350-53 and at the 43 bottom there were positive divergences.
- Lots of bullish daily candles today.
- AAPL held 560 and rallied back to positive eod but ultimately closed the day red.
- XLF lost then recaptured and closed above 15.
- IYT closed near the highs (still in wedge)
- VIX rejected above 20 and closed below.

SPX (Daily, 30 mminute)

NDX (Daily, 30 minute)

RUT-X (Daily, 30 minute)

AAPL (Daily, 30 minute)

XLF (Daily, 30 minute)

IYT (Daily, 30 minute)

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