Memorial Weekend Market Update 052912

Observations:

-SPX & NDX closing in on the 200SMA on daily, wedging at the 24% fib (RUT bounced is above it's 200SMA)

-Dollar broke out and is uptrending toward 84, RSI is 82.3

-Crude sitting on 90 UTL support on the weekly

-TLT triple top? Also negative divergences at this retest

- AAPL at DTL resistance will need for it to break up and hold 50% fib (570) for any meaningful rally in the markets with next resistance around 580-582.

- VIX is uptrending holding above 20

-McClellan Oscillator is down trending

SPX (Daily, 30 minute)

NDX (Daily, 30 minute)

RUT-X (Daily, 30 minute)

Dollar (Daily)

Crude (Daily)

TLT (Weekly, Daily)

Gold (Daily)

AAPL (Daily, 30 minute)

Shanghai Composite (Daily)

VIX (Daily)

McClellan Oscillator

Market Impasse 051312

Just some weekend homework/observations:

- Still down channel flagging action on SPX & NDX
- RUT still has the H&S or possible descending triangle
- SPX having trouble getting above 23.6% fib
- Looking like weak bear flags on the major indexes
- AAPL keeps sliding along previous down channel and now forming what looks like a bear flag
- XLF sub 15 (thank you JPM)
- Dollar at crucial down trend resistance
- EURUSD looks like double bottom (January lows) coming sub 1.27000
- VIX approaching 20 resistance

SPX (Daily, 30 minute)

NDX (Daily, 30 minute)

RUT (Daily, 30 minute)

AAPL (Daily, 30 minute)

XLF (Daily, Hourly)

Dollar (Daily)

EURUSD (Daily)

VIX (Daily)

McClellan Oscillator (Daily)

Market Snapshot 032012

It has been a long time since I did a market review but given our unstoppable run I wanted to see where we currently stand. Since my focus is now day trading futures this kind of daily research really isn't relevant to my approach. 

Markets continue to be risk on whatever (dollar up down euro up down) all dips continue to be bought. We are still not seeing sustained selling (opens are sold but closes like today are not) and AAPL sub 600 continues to be bought. Financials (XLF) is seeing sector rotation and leading. McClellan Oscillator shows we are way from overbought. Bonds are beginning to perk up out of their bases. And as I write this ES is up 5 points off 1400... So BTD lives on.

Here are some charts I'm looking at:

SPY

Weekly

Day

Hourly

QQQ

Monthly

Weekly

Day

30 minute

IWM

Week

Day

Hourly

Dollar

XLF

Weekly

Daily

VIX

McClellan Oscillator

Bonds

30 Yr Yield

TBT

Weekly

Market Read for Week 091911-092311

Market Read

Looks like I was dead wrong about last week's read as the market staged an almost vertical 5 day rally. You could have faded the read and I'm starting to believe that you could look to fade the strength in this week's read. Shorts got ran over again and again and again.

Whether the news out of the Europe is for real and the bailouts/money printing/can kicking continue the market still has not convinced me that risk is all clear through year end. This next few weeks should be very interesting and telling where we go from here.


Right now I am more "neutral" biased  for the foreseeable future. Global macro indicators continue to deteriorate while conversely we're getting more Central Bank action and speculation. As an intraday trader I need to constantly recite the mantra "trade what you see not what you think".

Finviz US econ calendar: http://finviz.com/calendar.ashx
Weekend update on European situation: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/europe-update-little-progress.html
Fed "Twist and Shout" action by John Mauldin: http://www.businessinsider.com/operation-twist-and-the-feds-latest-bailout-of-european-banks-2011-9
ECRI continues to point to a US recession (how can you be in something that isn't really defined): http://www.businessinsider.com/ecri-index-leading-economic-indicators-negative-2011-9

Bullish case:

- Markets are above their 20SMA

- Volume during this week's rally was strong

- Tech continues to lead
- Too many shorts in the frying pan

- AAPL above 400

Bearish case:

- Bear flags still around

- EURUSD lost the 200SMA, high volume sell-off and has Greece default news weighing on it
- Dollar bull flagging

- Crude bear flagging looks like its going to be sub 85 before 90+

- Copper breaking down out of bear flag

- Long bond continues to put in higher lows and highs

- VIX still bull flagging

- Gold (fear trade) is still strong 

- JNK v. LQD still weak

SPX

Weekly

Daily

30 min

QQQ

Daily

30 min

IWM

Daily

30 min

Dollar

Crude

Long Bond

Copper

Gold

VIX

McClellan Oscillator

JNK v. LQD

AAPL