Sunday, May 15, 2011

Weekly Swing Watchlist 051611-052011

This week's theme an all time favorite: "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs"

APKT- Cloud names have been relatively strong (above their 5/8 EMA) in the tech sector: FFIV, VMW, PCLN, NTAP, RVBD, etc... This one still looks good as it now is wedging close to TL sup & hanging around the 20 SMA. MACD is wedging and RSI looks constructive around 50. Looking at getting long on a push above the pennant with a stop below the 20 SMA.




ADTN- This tech name has already broke out of falling down channel and beginning to form a nice rounded base. Looks like it may need to dip a bit below 42 and retest TL support which means it would lose the 50 SMA and possibly come closer to the 20 SMA which would probably converge around TL support. Setting alert for 41.75-41.5 or lower with a 1-2 pt stop or possibly below the the bottom of base (39). Looking for a  50+ target.

30 minute

BIIB- I love this pharma leader's consolidation base post gap up dip allowing the 20 SMA to catch up. Looking at a June 100/105 bull call spread here with a stop if it loses the 20 SMA about a 3/1 R/R. 

TOS analytics

CAT- Watching to see if CAT is able to hold this TL as a failed breakdown. Will be closely watching Monday to see how this sector leader performs. May try a feeler around 106.5-107.1 with a stop around 105. First target would be around 110. 

30 minutes

CREE- Broke out of this base last week and closed at the highs around the 23.6% Fib and finally above the 20 SMA. On Friday held up fairly well pulling back and closing right on the breakout level and above the 5/8 EMA. Looks like it could have more reversal juice in the tank to start reversing this beat down. Setting an alert around 43.34 (Thursday's highs) stops out if it loses the 20 SMA. Looking at 50 as a logical first target which is also the 61.8% Fib.

DECK- Retail seems to be the dominant momo trend leader of late. DECK is still in an up channel with MACD in the basement but rounding up and RSI below 50. I like how this one's in a tight range/flag trapped between the 20 SMA as resistance (90) and 50 SMA as support (87.75). May take an anticipatory feeler around 88 with a stop below the 50 SMA about 1-2 points and look to add on a break above 90 (need to see volume). Looking for the 100 roll.

30 min

F- Looks interesting here sitting/bowling on 15 key level, TL support, 23.6 Fib and the 50 & the 200 SMA. Long-term prior support has now become resistance. May take a feeler right here right now with a clearly defined stop if it lost the confluence of support surrounding 15 maybe around 14.70 and looking for 17+. Not my fav setup.

FAST- Putting in a nice consolidation flag on top of the 20 SMA inside an ascending triangle within an up channel. Setting alert for 68 and stop out if it fails and closes back inside range maybe a 1 point stop. Ideally would like to see it trend sideways for a few more days and possibly allow the 50 SMA to catch up.

30 minute

GGG- Another machinery space name that has a nice bullish base to it with bullish volume. Ideally would like to see the 20 SMA catch up so if you did a trade (i.e. 50 trigger) you could have a defined stop.

PLPC- I like this pullback to TL support and 50 SMA consolidation/flag/wedge pattern. R/R is easier to define in this setup. May take a small feeler tight here right now and then look to add above 73 with a stop below TL support.

QCOM- Nice consolidation flag above the 20 SMA and looks like it wants to break TL resistance and at least retest 60. Already in this one via options.

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