Sunday, May 29, 2011

Market Read for Week 05311-060311

SPY- We're at that DTL resistance again and depending on currency markets may be prime to break out. Recent heavier volume on down days, seasonality and the end of QE still has me cautiously bullish. Also look at last year's summer SPY sell-off to chopfest action (Inverted H&S). Still have a feeling that funds are quietly lightening the risk load with too much macro risk and no extension of the Ber-nanke put (so far). Even if we break out of falling channel we may be range-bound and stuck in some summer chop. The 100 SMA and DTL is currently acting as support. SPY is now above the 5/8 EMA and 50 SMA but below the 20 SMA. It also closed above the 50% fib. Would not be looking to buy aggressively here but watch the dollar and leading stocks for equity tells.

30 minute

SPY last summer's sell-off

QQQ- Tech is showing relative weakness as it is below it's 20 & 50 SMA's but back above the 100 SMA (not displayed). As you can see from the 30 minute chart its trying to push out of its down channel. The 50% fib is acting as recent support. Volume here looks suspect.

30 minutes

IWM/Small caps- Small caps are helping the bullish case by appearing to have broken out of the falling down channel and closing above the 20 & 50 SMA's. *RUT is less clear about the DTL B/O The lighter volume here is a non-confirm (discounting Friday's anemic holiday volume). MACD looks like its about to kiss.


RUT-X hourly

DXY0/USDX/DX_F/Dollar- Nice bear flag breakdown on soft US econ news giving equities a nice boost. The dollar looks like it has further weakness ahead of it as MACD and RSI turning down. However, we need to see if the dollar can muster a higher low or lower low here and/or consolidate. Volume still leaning bullish short-term.


HG_F/Copper- Looks like investors are beginning to bet on China's global growth story here with copper holding the TL and breaking out of falling down channel. With global inflation cooling or at least stabilizing it appears that China will continue to let it's yuan appreciate perhaps more rapidly, increasing their buying power and transition to a consumption economy.

ZB_F/Long Bond (30-year)- After putting in a nice consolidation base the long bond is now flagging beneath the 200 SMA. Treasuries' strength may be attributed to seasonality but also may be signaling more coming volatility in equities. I don't follow bonds or the treasury markets so I have no real edge here.

XOIL/CL_F/Crude- Looks like a nice consolidation base being built here just hanging around 100. MACD has kissed with the 20 SMA acting as resistance. Gun to head think this sees 105 (50% fib) before it sees 95 again (recent low support).

Crude VIX

GC_F/XGLD/Gold- Leading the commodity space. Bullish MACD kiss and above all major MA's.


SI_F/XSLV/Silver- Similar to crude silver is building a nice base holding above TL support with the 50 SMA and 38.2% fib as resistance. I like how it has crossed and is holding above the 5/8EMA's as well as the 20 SMA. We're seeing a bullish MACD kiss with RSI over 50. *have position in SLV


VIX- Moving sideways in the long-term descending triangle. No edge here.

McClellan Oscillator/T2106- Broke out of descending triangle last week confirming the bounce. No edge here.

No comments:

Post a Comment