Market Snapshot 032012

It has been a long time since I did a market review but given our unstoppable run I wanted to see where we currently stand. Since my focus is now day trading futures this kind of daily research really isn't relevant to my approach. 

Markets continue to be risk on whatever (dollar up down euro up down) all dips continue to be bought. We are still not seeing sustained selling (opens are sold but closes like today are not) and AAPL sub 600 continues to be bought. Financials (XLF) is seeing sector rotation and leading. McClellan Oscillator shows we are way from overbought. Bonds are beginning to perk up out of their bases. And as I write this ES is up 5 points off 1400... So BTD lives on.

Here are some charts I'm looking at:

SPY

Weekly

Day

Hourly

QQQ

Monthly

Weekly

Day

30 minute

IWM

Week

Day

Hourly

Dollar

XLF

Weekly

Daily

VIX

McClellan Oscillator

Bonds

30 Yr Yield

TBT

Weekly

Futures Trading: thru 3rd week March 2012 Stats

- Total Trades: 109 (49 for this week) *includes scalps

- Win Rate: 57% (57% long/63% short)
- Payoff Ratio (Win/Loss Size Ratio or Expectation) : 1.05
- Expectancy: 41.95
- Total "R" (Total Amount Gained/Lost in terms of Risk Units): 72.57
- Avg "R" (Avg Risk Gained/Lost): .7
- Error Rate: 5% (5 trade all scratched)

030912: NFP Recap

ES_F

NQ_F

US Econ Calendar:

Fri Mar 09		Release	Impact	For	Actual	Expected	Prior
8:30 AM		Nonfarm Payrolls		Feb	227K	206K	284K
8:30 AM		Nonfarm Private Payrolls		Feb	233K	220K	285K
8:30 AM		Unemployment Rate		Feb	8.3%	8.3%	8.3%
8:30 AM		Hourly Earnings		Feb	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
8:30 AM		Average Workweek		Feb	34.5	34.5	34.5
8:30 AM		Trade Balance		Jan	-$52.6B	-$48.2B	-$50.4B
10:00 AM		Wholesale Inventories		Jan	0.4%	0.6%	1.1%

*Bloomberg news: ISDA rumor of Greek CDS trigger around 12:20PM:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/isda-finds-greek-credit-event-has-occurred-reports-bloomberg

ES Stats (refer to spreadsheet for more stats & details):

Open: 62.25
Daily ES Range: 6.25 (12 avg)
DL: 1360.5
DH: 1368.75
DM: 1364.75
ONVPOC: 60
IBL: 60.5
IBH: 66.75
ONR: 9.5 (10 avg)
ONH: 67
ONL: 57.5

Futures Trading: 2nd March 2012 Stats

- Total Trades: 60

- Win Rate: 53% (52% long/63%short)
- Payoff Ratio (Win/Loss Size Ratio or Expectation) : 1.02
- Expectancy: 20
- Total "R" (Total Amount Gained/Lost in terms of Risk Units): 23.35
- Avg "R" (Avg Risk Gained/Lost): .39
- Error Rate: 2% (1 trade)


Commentary: All in all a bad week for me. Lucky to come out flat overall.

Frog being eaten by a Bird: "Never Give Up"

SPX: a quick look at possible scenarios

Weekly: longer-time frame 1200 would still create a higher low into ascending triangle also spot of 23.4% fib 

Daily: 20 SMA directly underneath us still in think up channel that kicked off late Dec. 2011. Under the 20 SMA looking at 1320'ish lower volume pocket with 50 SMA & UTL convergence

Hourly: watch for break of 1362-1360 or TL support to kick off a deeper pullback move lower

30 minute: Or a clean break above 1378-80 to kick off more upside 1400+

Futures Trading: 1st Week March 2012 Stats

- Total Trades: 17

- Win Rate: 64.71% (60% long, 71% short)
- Payoff Ratio (Win/Loss Size Ratio or Expectation) : 1.65
- Expectancy: 80
- Total "R" (Total Amount Gained/Lost in terms of Risk Units): 10.16
- Avg "R" (Avg Risk Gained/Lost): .6
- Error Rate: 6% (1 trade)