Weekly Swing Watchlist 040311-040811

Didn't find a ton of good setups this weekend. Don't think trading will be nearly as good as last week's watchlist http://blackmarkt-trader.blogspot.com/2011_03_01_archive.html

SPY-  My bias is that we don't make it through 1338 and hold. Instead I think we fail and pullback to around 1310 or 1300 to form the right shoulder of the inv H&S. But must be prepared for anything especially bull traps.

Copper (JJC)- Copper in a down channel. RSI, MACD, & Stoch RSI are all turning down. Again copper is lacking the overall market but has been a fairly good leading market tell. But as Steven Place at IWO stated this could do with China and the continuing issue of rising interest rates to cool inflation.

Crude (CL_F)- WTI broke out on Friday but gas prices don't matter to the US economy until they do.

Dollar (DXY0)- On Friday after a positive jobs report the dollar was strongly rejected from 23.6% fib retracement level. Let's see if it can hold here and start making a higher low and possible uptrend. Lots of QE forever, Yen intervention, Europe insolvency crosscurrents.

McClellan Oscillator (T2106)- Good breadth during this rally but getting close to +200 level. Not a primary or even secondary trading indicator but just something that's cautioning me to go heavy long after this move.

Watchlist

SHAW- short idea looking for a retest of 36 with a 30-50c stop looking for a quick failure from that level & the 20MA. Downside targets are 32-34.

KEX- trannie still setting up for a B/O. trigger is 57.4 with a 50c stop looking for at least 60.

DECK- Like trying to get into this one on a P/B to 20/50MA convergence around 84 with a stop just under that trying to catch a P/B to B/O setup. Looking for top of channel or possibly 100. Also setting a 2nd alert above Fri's high 88.28 looking for volume confirmation if it does go.

CHRW- Like this on a clean break above 100MA or Fri's hi 75.37 with a stop below Fri's low or 1pt trying to catch a run to 80. Not my fav setup but looks like it has put in a bottom & now above that base.

GES- Like the gap fill play here on a break w/ volume of Fri's hi/20MA 40.8 may take some for a swing with a stop under Fri's low 39.69 looking for possible 48-50 retest. TA analysis: bullish MACD cross, Stoch turning up, RSI trying to put in a bottom

ASH- Looks poised for a move out of wedge & BB pinch to pop. Bullish volume, MACD convergence, RSI Stoch is tightening. Not the cleanest chart but may take a feeler above 58.5 with a stop under the 20/50MA's under 57 looking for a move above the recent high 62+ or top of channel.

RIMM- Relatively weak tech play here. If market can't get above 1338 & we make our way down & tech continues to lag like this short if it loses 55.77 with a 30c stop looking for 1+pts.