VRTX

This one may looks ready... Held the 30 SMA which has acted as support, getting a Stoch kiss & rounding MACD, RSI above 50 Will be watching tomorrow. Probably look to get long above today's high or around 56.50 with a stop under today's low 55.55 and looking for 60-61

Daily with MA's,MACD, RSI & Stoch RSI

Hourly

Weekly Swing Watchlist 052311-052711

This week's theme: "Don't get chopped and ground up"

OVERALL READ: Not seeing a lot of bullish or bearish setups. Market seems to be stuck at this crossroad and awaiting more decisive currency driven information (i.e. Euro bailouts, Fed QE ending, US debt issue, etc...). So will probably be sitting on hands or shorten my time frame to day trading and cut my tier size until there's a clear equity direction. Time to be defensive and try not to lose money in a probable sideways chopfest.

APKT- A weekly recycled favorite. Long on a successful hold of 72 support or 79 breakout of the downtrend line with a 1-2 point stop looking for 90+ depending on strength of market.

30 minute

BIIB- Another recycled name that is forming a nice sideways consolidation pattern post gap up. *Already in a vertical call spread.

DECK- still stuck in this 87.5-91/92 range sideways consolidation. Probably better to try to buy off the 87.5 support with maybe a 2-3 point stop with a possible 100 roll target but if market is weak this retail shoe may succumb.

Hourly

LULU- Probably better to try to pick this off the wedge TL support around 94 with a tight 1-2 pt stop or use the 50 SMA or TL as your stop. Looking for a move to 105. Or you could buy on a breakout of TL resistance around 98-99 but there have already been multiple failed attempts so you may need to use a wider stop.

30 minute

PLPC- Watch for a break either way out of this wedge. Setting alert for 72 with maybe a 2 point stop. If this should breakdown out of this wedge setting a short alert for 65 with a tight stop looking for a quick move to 63-62. I would prefer to go long.

30 minute

RAX- Looks like a right here right now setup with a rounding MACD, Stoch and RSI. 20 SMA acting as short-term resistance and long-term TL acting as support. Going to see how this behaves early in the week. Setting alert for 43.5 with a probable 2 point stop looking for 50 but if it doesn't work right away may take it off as quick as possible.

30 minute

QCOM- Luv the look of this consolidation pattern right below TL resistance while the market has been chopping around. You could set alert for 58.5 with a stop below the previous day's low. *Already in a vertical bull call spread

VRTX- Looking to catch this at the 50 SMA & TL support (51) of the extracted rising channel. Probably not a play for this week but something I'm keep on my radar.

Market Read for Week 052311-052711

SPY- Volume patterns starting to feel like quiet lightening of the load or "de-risking" from funds. This thesis makes sense as macro news of late has begun turning negative or not confirming that the market can transition from Fed backed easy money to a fundamentally footed fueled market. BUT there are a lot of conflicting cross currents from the dollar's relative weakness (and now short-term strength) to sell in May... Right now SPY is in a down/falling channel, below the 20 SMA but above the 50 SMA and in between the 50 & 61% fib retracement levels.

Hourly

QQQ- Don't see any real edge here in tech as it is in between the 20 & 50 SMA. 59 is key resistance and volume pattern of late is flashing a cautionary sign but still making higher higher lows and highs.

IWM- Small cap "risk" appetite leader may be foreshadowing further weakness short-term in equities.

DXY0/DX_F/Dollar- Looks primed for more with the inverse H&S. Think the dollar sees 77 (measured move from the right shoulder, 50% fib, & resistance level) on a break above 76.

DXY0

DX_F

DX_F hourly

HG_F/Copper- Copper is still in a down channel to long-term TL support. It attempted to break out on Friday but failed. Watch for a move this week as a possible tell that the global growth story may be turning back on as China and the rest of the emerging world markets fight inflation. If this TL fails and copper breaks down watch for continued weakness in equities.

XOIL/CL_F/Crude- 100 SMA is acting as resistance. Strong buying below 97.5 (buying tails around 95). Summer seasonality and Middle Eastern production sensitivity seem to act as underlying bids in crude keeping it around the 100 sweet spot.

XOIL

Crude VIX

XSLV/Silver- Looks similar to crude with the 10 SMA acting as resistance and a lower TL acting as solid support. Silver seems to be basing around the 100 SMA. If it can get above the 10 SMA and 23.6% fib think  39 is next level to watch which is also the location of the 38.2% fib.

XGLD/Gold- Not sure why gold is showing relative strength compared to silver and other precious metals but there may be seasonal demand forces at work here.

VIX- a bearish non-confirmation with no signs of real protective fear buying.

McClellan Oscillator- descending triangle expecting a break early this week.

Weekly Swing Watchlist 051611-052011

This week's theme an all time favorite: "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs"

APKT- Cloud names have been relatively strong (above their 5/8 EMA) in the tech sector: FFIV, VMW, PCLN, NTAP, RVBD, etc... This one still looks good as it now is wedging close to TL sup & hanging around the 20 SMA. MACD is wedging and RSI looks constructive around 50. Looking at getting long on a push above the pennant with a stop below the 20 SMA.

FFIV

VMW

RVBD

ADTN- This tech name has already broke out of falling down channel and beginning to form a nice rounded base. Looks like it may need to dip a bit below 42 and retest TL support which means it would lose the 50 SMA and possibly come closer to the 20 SMA which would probably converge around TL support. Setting alert for 41.75-41.5 or lower with a 1-2 pt stop or possibly below the the bottom of base (39). Looking for a  50+ target.

30 minute

BIIB- I love this pharma leader's consolidation base post gap up dip allowing the 20 SMA to catch up. Looking at a June 100/105 bull call spread here with a stop if it loses the 20 SMA about a 3/1 R/R. 

TOS analytics

CAT- Watching to see if CAT is able to hold this TL as a failed breakdown. Will be closely watching Monday to see how this sector leader performs. May try a feeler around 106.5-107.1 with a stop around 105. First target would be around 110. 

30 minutes

CREE- Broke out of this base last week and closed at the highs around the 23.6% Fib and finally above the 20 SMA. On Friday held up fairly well pulling back and closing right on the breakout level and above the 5/8 EMA. Looks like it could have more reversal juice in the tank to start reversing this beat down. Setting an alert around 43.34 (Thursday's highs) stops out if it loses the 20 SMA. Looking at 50 as a logical first target which is also the 61.8% Fib.

DECK- Retail seems to be the dominant momo trend leader of late. DECK is still in an up channel with MACD in the basement but rounding up and RSI below 50. I like how this one's in a tight range/flag trapped between the 20 SMA as resistance (90) and 50 SMA as support (87.75). May take an anticipatory feeler around 88 with a stop below the 50 SMA about 1-2 points and look to add on a break above 90 (need to see volume). Looking for the 100 roll.

30 min

F- Looks interesting here sitting/bowling on 15 key level, TL support, 23.6 Fib and the 50 & the 200 SMA. Long-term prior support has now become resistance. May take a feeler right here right now with a clearly defined stop if it lost the confluence of support surrounding 15 maybe around 14.70 and looking for 17+. Not my fav setup.

FAST- Putting in a nice consolidation flag on top of the 20 SMA inside an ascending triangle within an up channel. Setting alert for 68 and stop out if it fails and closes back inside range maybe a 1 point stop. Ideally would like to see it trend sideways for a few more days and possibly allow the 50 SMA to catch up.

30 minute

GGG- Another machinery space name that has a nice bullish base to it with bullish volume. Ideally would like to see the 20 SMA catch up so if you did a trade (i.e. 50 trigger) you could have a defined stop.

PLPC- I like this pullback to TL support and 50 SMA consolidation/flag/wedge pattern. R/R is easier to define in this setup. May take a small feeler tight here right now and then look to add above 73 with a stop below TL support.

QCOM- Nice consolidation flag above the 20 SMA and looks like it wants to break TL resistance and at least retest 60. Already in this one via options.