blackmarkt-trader

Thursday, June 9, 2011

The SPY bounce

Channel extrapolation shows that we bounced on a lower TL support and also 23.6% fib from the mid March low to the Bin Laden top in May. SPY was able to get close to 130 but closed at 5 EMA and the 38.2% fib. As you can see from the 10 minute chart we're starting to see an inverted H&S forming. This pattern would be completed by SPY coming down to 129'ish and heading back up to 130 and breaking out possibly tomorrow but looking more like next week. The measured move is about 1 point so you could expect an upside target of 131 close to the 50% fib.

10 minute

Sunday, June 5, 2011

RIMM

RIMM is coming down to a possible buyable bounce around 35-36 or last year's low and DTL support on the Weekly. I may try a scaling in around 36 all the way to 35 with a 1-2 pt stop looking for at least 42.50'ish.

Weekly

Daily

Daily #2

Hourly

LULU

LULU bounced on Friday off a previous breakout support level around 86. It has the 100 SMA just under that. This momo name looks prime for a nice bounce. If I were to take this trade I'm looking for a 50% fib retracement which is close to the 20/50 SMA convergence.

FOSL

If we are to get a bounce this retail name has held up relatively well and looking to get in on a dip to 98, the 50 SMA or the 50 SMA. Stop out around 96 with upside target around 105.

Weekly Swing Watchlist 060611-061011

Risk Management
*Yes lots of recycled names here but lots of relative strength

APKT- Still looks bullish just consolidating... Reminds me of "Waiting for Godot"

Weekly fav: http://blackmarkt-trader.blogspot.com/2011/05/weekly-swing-watchlist-052311-052711.html

30 minute

CRR- A right here right now if market bounces setup. Right at TL support and the 50 SMA. Easy to define risk with a stop if it loses 142'ish or the 50 SMA with a conservative 160 target. Still has the bullish volume pattern but lagging indicators like MACD & RSI are still a non-confirm. Looking at June 160 calls.

Recycled: http://blackmarkt-trader.blogspot.com/2011/05/weekly-swing-watchlist-053111-060311.html

Hourly

EXPD- This is a support bounce play here with the 200 SMA, key level and lower BB lining up. On the daily this looks like a potential inv H&S setting up. Ideally you could take this at 50 with a possible .50¢-1 point stop looking for at least 52 around the 50 SMA and TL resistance.

Hourly

IWM- Will probably take 80 with a possible 50¢-1 pt stop looking for 82-83 as conservative targets.

Hourly

MELI- Relatively strong with a nice consolidation flag being built on the daily. 92.3 is where there appears to be aggressive sellers from the 2 tails. You could wait for a clean break above that or recent high 92.73 or try an anticipatory position around this congestion zone with a possible stop under the 50 SMA. Will probably continue to watch and wait for more possible consolidation and a successful retest of support.

Recycled Name: http://blackmarkt-trader.blogspot.com/2011/05/weekly-swing-watchlist-053111-060311.html

Hourly

QCOM- Still chugging...

Recycled Name: http://blackmarkt-trader.blogspot.com/2011/05/weekly-swing-watchlist-053111-060311.html

Hourly

RAX- nice consolidation base being built and starting to trend higher above the 20/50 SMA. This one does it's own thing and is difficult to trade but still looks good.

Recycled Name: http://blackmarkt-trader.blogspot.com/2011/05/weekly-swing-watchlist-053111-060311.html

VRTX- Doesn't look like I'm going to get that TL or 50 SMA test. Setting primary alert for a dip back to 53 with a probable .50¢ stop looking for 60. Also setting a second alert for 55.5 or a break above the 20 SMA with a stop below the day's low that it goes.

Recycled name: http://blackmarkt-trader.blogspot.com/2011/05/vrtx.html

Hourly

Market Read for Week 060611-061011

"Real mastery of market patterns follows naturally once a trader has an intuitive sense of buying and selling pressure, but intuition only grows out of constantly thinking about market structure and exposure to tens of thousands of pattern variations." ~ Adam Grimes @AdamG_SMB

Econonmic Week Summary: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/summary-for-week-ending-june-3rd.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29&utm_content=Twitter

Upcoming Week Schedule: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/schedule-for-week-of-june-5th.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29

Overall Market Read- Well as I suspected it was a weak week for the markets as both equities and the dollar got pounded as risk aversion was in full effect. The volume patterns of late have signaled quiet distribution as down days on average had heavier volume while up days had very light volume. Without the Ber-nanke put, the on-going bailout mess in Euroland, summer sell in May effect and the rather surprisingly quick deterioration of US econ news it is time to lighten the risk load. We got that nice bull trap on Tuesday as the volume on that break out day was suspiciously low setting the stage for 3 straight days of selling in which we lost the 100 SMA on most major indexes. I don't think equities completely roll over here but think we're going to enter the summer chopfest. I'm expecting a bounce early this week possibly starting on Monday (took a couple longs on Friday) as we just had 3 straight consecutive down days, SPY hit the extreme BB on the daily and at the bottom of TL support.

On the commodity front thanks to dollar weakness we're seeing relative strength with nice bases being built in crude and silver while gold continues to march higher. Investors seem to think 100 for crude is the sweet spot and people are beginning to spot a possible inverted H&S in silver. Copper seems to be basing above TL support with the 50 SMA acting as resistance. With Western economies seemingly succumbing to the sucking forces of deflation emerging markets like China may be able to ease their monetary tightening and resume inflationary growth.

SPY-

Last summer's SPY sell-off into an inverted H&S

Hourly

QQQ-

Hourly

IWM

Hourly

Dollar- Dollar futures rolling right back over. The dollar/risk on and equities correlation has flipped and we're now seeing selling in both. But the commodities space seems to be responding well to a weaker dollar.

DXY0

DX_F

Long Bond- The long bond has had a nice run out of the multi-month consolidation base as investors move to safety. When we get an equity rally it will be interesting to see how much of a pullback bonds get. If it's shallow I think equities have more downside in store but will be looking at other clues.

ZB_F