Sunday, June 12, 2011

Market Read for Week 061311-061711

Upcoming Week Schedule

Overall Market Read: *This read was taken from my previous post "Oops I was wrong about the SPY bounce and am paying for it"

Yup looks like I am dead wrong about a possible SPY bounce unless we see a vicious bear trap move early this week... not looking likely given the selling at the close. Friday's action was fugly as we opened gap down and immediately started selling at the open at the 5 EMA on the daily. In the process we lost 23.6% fib and headed straight for the lower BB. I guess straight orderly selling should be expected given that what we're seeing is the inverse of quantitative easing, "QC" quantitative contraction.
So I'm still expecting a bounce sometime in the near future (hopefully early this week into Opex) or around 1250 which is the location of the 200 SMA and the Egypt lows. Check out Josh Brown's Yahoo Breakout segment for more info on SPY 1250 @ReformedBroker

Things to watch out for are the dollar, the Euro debt mess, further speculation about QE. Remember the ol Wall Street adage "Bottoms are events. Tops are processes."




Dollar (DXY0)

Copper (HG_F)

Long Bond (ZB_F)

Crude (XOIL)


McClellan Oscillator (T2106)


  1. Looks like the IWM stochastic K line is getting ready to cross the MACD line again and send IWM back up on a brief rally bounce. Is that what you see in the IWM chart?

    Also looks like the McClellan Oscillator chart points to better odds for a short term bounce off the extreme lows or getting ready to hit a bottom and bounce. Do you see that as well?

  2. Yup that's exactly what I see but the we shall see... But markets can stay oversold longer than I can stay liquid.

  3. Thanks,bye the way futures just posted as I was reading your response. Up a little across the board gives a small amount of hope through the nite into tomorrow! Good luck buddy!