Wednesday, June 15, 2011


Well if it wasn't weak US econ data then it was riots in Greece (the same summer story from last year) that kick started a BIG upmove in the dollar and sunk equities today. Just no way to sugarcoat today's action but "Fugly fugly fugly"

The dollar managed to close above it's 100 SMA and right at the 38.2% fib. It just got a bullish MACD cross and RSI is beginning to turn up. I would expect there to be some digestion in the next few days but the situation is so fluid right now and with investors seemingly skittish and risk averse anything could happen.

Distribution volume is starting to pick up with a nice spike today.We're not that far from the 200 SMA now and we have 125.30 right below that. Dip buyers continue to get punished as there is just no follow-through day. In fact just when we have 1 up day it's followed by an even uglier down day.

Two things that are interesting and I'm grasping at straws here is that small caps did not violate their recent lows and copper isn't looking that bad (can't say the same for crude). Bullish? I'm not reading too much into this as there is still no evidence of buying conviction. But hey it would not surprise me if we gapped up HUGE tomorrow and went on a nice multi-day rally just when it feels like sentiment and fear (VIX) are really beginning to ramp.







Long bond


McClellan Oscillator

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