blackmarkt-trader: Market Read for Week 091311-091611

After the run we had for most of the week stocks fell on Thursday and gapped down on Friday. I'm not certain what caused the strong rally from Monday through Thursday afternoon but the most popular explanation I hear is window dressing. Or it could just be the vicious bear market rally where sellers revelot and shorts (on margin?) get fried (short interest is historically high via @zerohedge)

Overall I'm still more neutral to short biased (for the foreseeable future) unless this wedge turns bullish and we stay above the 20 SMA for an extended period. I don't see any evidence of an "all clear" signal or clarity appearing on the horizon and only risk increasing as the Western world appears to be heading into a protracted recession and low growth phase just when they need the increased revenues to out-grow their out of control debt-load. But there are many joker wild cards being deployed all the time now from central banks around the world.

Looks like its going to be a BIG week for Europe http://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-watch-out-for-in-the-eurozone-over-the-long-weekend-2011-9

Finviz US econ calendar: http://finviz.com/calendar.ashx

Bullish case:

- SPY & QQQ held the 20SMA on the daily
- Tech is still outperforming the rest of the market
- Dollar still sub 75

- Approaching TL support on most charts

Bearish case:

- Bear flags everywhere

- 20/50 SMA Death Cross on daily

- EURUSD starting to roll threatening it's 200SMA while the dollar looks like it's putting in LT base

- Crude looks like its going to be sub 85 before 90+

- Copper looks like its forming a bearish rising wedge

- Long bond continues to put in higher lows and highs (Friday spike)