Futures Trading: thru 3rd week March 2012 Stats

- Total Trades: 109 (49 for this week) *includes scalps

- Win Rate: 57% (57% long/63% short)
- Payoff Ratio (Win/Loss Size Ratio or Expectation) : 1.05
- Expectancy: 41.95
- Total "R" (Total Amount Gained/Lost in terms of Risk Units): 72.57
- Avg "R" (Avg Risk Gained/Lost): .7
- Error Rate: 5% (5 trade all scratched)

030912: NFP Recap

ES_F

NQ_F

US Econ Calendar:

Fri Mar 09		Release	Impact	For	Actual	Expected	Prior
8:30 AM		Nonfarm Payrolls		Feb	227K	206K	284K
8:30 AM		Nonfarm Private Payrolls		Feb	233K	220K	285K
8:30 AM		Unemployment Rate		Feb	8.3%	8.3%	8.3%
8:30 AM		Hourly Earnings		Feb	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
8:30 AM		Average Workweek		Feb	34.5	34.5	34.5
8:30 AM		Trade Balance		Jan	-$52.6B	-$48.2B	-$50.4B
10:00 AM		Wholesale Inventories		Jan	0.4%	0.6%	1.1%

*Bloomberg news: ISDA rumor of Greek CDS trigger around 12:20PM:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/isda-finds-greek-credit-event-has-occurred-reports-bloomberg

ES Stats (refer to spreadsheet for more stats & details):

Open: 62.25
Daily ES Range: 6.25 (12 avg)
DL: 1360.5
DH: 1368.75
DM: 1364.75
ONVPOC: 60
IBL: 60.5
IBH: 66.75
ONR: 9.5 (10 avg)
ONH: 67
ONL: 57.5

Futures Trading: 2nd March 2012 Stats

- Total Trades: 60

- Win Rate: 53% (52% long/63%short)
- Payoff Ratio (Win/Loss Size Ratio or Expectation) : 1.02
- Expectancy: 20
- Total "R" (Total Amount Gained/Lost in terms of Risk Units): 23.35
- Avg "R" (Avg Risk Gained/Lost): .39
- Error Rate: 2% (1 trade)


Commentary: All in all a bad week for me. Lucky to come out flat overall.

Frog being eaten by a Bird: "Never Give Up"

SPX: a quick look at possible scenarios

Weekly: longer-time frame 1200 would still create a higher low into ascending triangle also spot of 23.4% fib 

Daily: 20 SMA directly underneath us still in think up channel that kicked off late Dec. 2011. Under the 20 SMA looking at 1320'ish lower volume pocket with 50 SMA & UTL convergence

Hourly: watch for break of 1362-1360 or TL support to kick off a deeper pullback move lower

30 minute: Or a clean break above 1378-80 to kick off more upside 1400+

Futures Trading: 1st Week March 2012 Stats

- Total Trades: 17

- Win Rate: 64.71% (60% long, 71% short)
- Payoff Ratio (Win/Loss Size Ratio or Expectation) : 1.65
- Expectancy: 80
- Total "R" (Total Amount Gained/Lost in terms of Risk Units): 10.16
- Avg "R" (Avg Risk Gained/Lost): .6
- Error Rate: 6% (1 trade)

Market to Bears: We're Not Going Anywhere