blackmarkt-trader: ES Daily Plan 050412

Commentary

E-mini S&Ps are little changed ahead of this morning's April payroll report. The U.S. markets are mainly looking ahead to today's April payroll report, which is expected to improve to +162,000 from March's disappointing report of +120,000. The dollar index is slightly higher by +0.10 points. Commodity prices are mixed with crude oil down $1.25 and gold down $4.4, but with copper up 0.4 and grains and softs trading higher.
European stocks are lower this morning with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.47%. Bearish factors include this morning's downward revisions in European service PMIs and political uncertainty ahead of Sunday's elections in France, Greece, and Germany. The April services purchasing managers index (PMI) was revised lower to 46.9 from 47.9 for the Eurozone, to 52.2 from 52.6 for Germany, to 45.2 from 46.4 for France, and to 42.3 from 44.3 for Italy. The Eurozone composite PMI fell to 46.7 from 49.1 in March.
There was some good news on the consumer spending front with March Eurozone retail sales reported at +0.3% m/m and -0.2% y/y, which was better than the market consensus of unchanged m/m and -1.1% y/y and better than the revised March report of -0.2% m/m and -2.1% y/y. Socialist party chief Francois Hollande remains ahead of French President Nicolas Sarkozy in all five polls taken within the last two days, but Mr. Hollande's lead has narrowed a bit after Wednesday's debate. Still, Mr. Hollande's lead in all the polls is 5 points or more and he still appears to be headed for victory.
Stock markets in China (+0.91%) and Taiwan (+0.54%) closed higher today, but the rest of the main Asian-Pacific stock markets closed lower: Hong Kong -0.77%, Australia -0.74%, Singapore -0.34%, South Korea -0.62%, India -1.87%. Chinese stocks received a boost from news last night that China's HSBC April services PMI rose +0.8 to 54.1 from 53.3 in March. The Australian central bank today in its quarterly monetary policy statement cut its GDP and inflation forecasts, justifying the central bank's 50 bp rate cut earlier this week. The central bank cut its 2012 GDP estimate to +3.0% from Feb's estimate of +3.5%, and cut its 2012 CPI estimate to +2.5% from +3.0%. The Australian dollar was little changed on the policy statement.

DAX: http://www.forexpros.com/indices/germany-30-advanced-chart

Open Type

Not sure looks to be trying to Open Out Of Range (5:43AM)

Trade Scenarios

RTH PP: 90

Globex PP: 91

Bull/Bear Line: 89-90

- Longs: 80-78 (ONL) with upside targets 83, 87+

- Shorts: 89 (ONH)-90 with downside targets 83, 80+ under 80 we have 77 to 70.

Econ Calendar

Monster Employment Index
8:30 Nonfarm Payrolls

Global

Fri May 4		USD ICSC Chain Store Sales (YoY) (APR)	Medium		4.1%
	00:15	CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (MAR)	Medium	1.1%	0.8%
	00:55	EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)	Medium	52.6	52.6
	01:00	EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (APR F)	Medium	47.4	47.4
	01:00	EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)	Medium	47.9	47.9
	02:00	EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)	High	-1.1%	-2.1%
	02:00	EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)	Medium	0.0%	-0.1%
	05:30 LIVE	USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (APR)	High	165K	120K
	05:30	USD Unemployment Rate (APR)	High	8.2%	8.2%
	05:30	USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (MoM) (APR)	Medium	0.2%	0.2%
	05:30	USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (YoY) (APR)	Medium	2.1%	2.1%
	05:30	USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (APR)	Medium	20K	37K
	05:30	USD Change in Private Payrolls (APR)	Medium	173K	121K
	05:30	USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (APR)	Medium		14.5%
	07:00	CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (APR)	Medium	60.8	63.5