blackmarkt-trader: IYT

*Disclaimer: I'm net long but hedged.

Seeing a lot of bearish sentiment on the stream today while ES trading under 1350 which perfectly set up the late day rally and short squeeze back into yesterday's range. We may still see Sunday's lows around 42 near-term but it feels like the market is trying to bounce. Now that everyone sees the captain obvious H&S in Russell looks like a good spot to capitulate.

Some constructive (not necessarily bullish) signs I saw today were:

- ES closed strong, above 1350-53 and at the 43 bottom there were positive divergences.
- Lots of bullish daily candles today.
- AAPL held 560 and rallied back to positive eod but ultimately closed the day red.
- XLF lost then recaptured and closed above 15.
- IYT closed near the highs (still in wedge)
- VIX rejected above 20 and closed below.

SPX (Daily, 30 mminute)

NDX (Daily, 30 minute)

RUT-X (Daily, 30 minute)

AAPL (Daily, 30 minute)

XLF (Daily, 30 minute)

IYT (Daily, 30 minute)

Commentary

ADP Employment missed with 119k on expectations of 170k.

German April unemployment rose by +19,000 to 2.87 million persons, which showed a weaker labor market than expectations for a decline of -10,000. The German unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.8% after the upward revision in the March rate to 6.8% from 6.7%. The German April final manufacturing PMI was left unrevised from the preliminary report of 46.3. The French April final manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 46.9 from 47.3. Meanwhile, there were slightly weaker Eurozone economic figures as well. The March Eurozone unemployment rate ticked higher to a 15-year high of 10.9% from 10.8% in February. The final April Eurozone manufacturing PMI was revised slightly lower to 45.9 from 46.0 and was down from 47.7 in March.

DAX: http://www.forexpros.com/indices/germany-30-advanced-chart

Open Type

Open In Range (as of 5:22AM)

Trade Scenarios

RTH PP: 1401

Globex PP: 1400

Bull/Bear Line: 90 *but 1400 was key for bulls

- Longs: 91-89, 87, 83-80 with 95-96 & 1400+ targets

- Shorts: 95-96 & 1400-1403 with downside target's sub 90-89

Econ Calendar

Global

Wed May 2	00:15	CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (MAR)	Medium	1.1%	0.8%
	00:30	CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (APR)	Medium	51	51.1
	00:55 LIVE	EUR German Unemployment Change (APR)	High	-10K	-18K
	00:55	EUR German April Unemployment Data	Medium
	00:55	EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR F)	Medium	46.3	46.3
	00:55 LIVE	EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)	Medium	6.70%	6.7%
	01:00	EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR F)	Medium	46	46
	01:30	GBP Mortgage Approvals (MAR)	Medium	48.0K	49.0K
	01:30	GBP Net Consumer Credit (MAR)	Medium	0.3B	0.4B
	01:30	GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (MAR)	Medium	1.0B	1.2B
	01:30	GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (APR)	Medium	54	56.7
	02:00	EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (MAR)	Medium	10.9%	10.8%
	05:15	USD ADP Employment Change (APR)	Medium	175K	209K
	07:00	USD Factory Orders (MAR)	Medium	-1.5%	1.3%
	15:45	NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (1Q)	Medium	0.5%	0.1%
	15:45	NZD Employment Change (YoY) (1Q)	Medium	0.9%	1.6%
	15:45	NZD Unemployment Rate (1Q)	Medium	6.2%	6.3%
	16:30	AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (APR)	Medium		47
	18:00	CNY China Non-manufacturing PMI (APR)	Medium		58