blackmarkt-trader: Market Read for Week 062011-062411

Still waiting on that bounce...

Upcoming Week Schedule: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/schedule-for-week-of-june-19th.html

Upcoming Fed Meeting on Tuesday & Wednesday: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/fomc-meeting-preview.html

Overall Market Read: Markets still feel weak and the trend is still to the downside but I'm still expecting a bounce any day now and yet another inverted H&S from Wednesday to Friday (SSDD)... Continued bearish US econ news and the on-going problems in Europe are holding equities hostage to risk aversion. The flight to safety is seen in the dollar and bonds. Without the Ber-nanke bid or put or backstop or QE helium investors feel extremely "eject" trigger happy. We shall see if the Fed changes it's tone about the current policy and how investors react.

Tech looks poised to start a multi-day bounce here so I'll be focusing any sort of strength there.

Small caps are starting to more appetite for risk.

The dollar is now making higher hi's and lows within an extrapolated up channel. If Greece and the PIGS can simmer down I'd expect the dollar to see $75 and if it loses that level $74 TL support.

In the commodity space crude looks like its going to see $90 pretty soon while copper is consolidating within it's uptrend. Gold continues to outperform and silver could be forming a wedge/pennant.

The VIX has broken out above 20 and coming up on TL resistance while the McClellan Oscillator is still in the oversold basement.

Things to watch out for are the dollar, the Euro debt mess, investor's reaction to Fed meeting, etc... Remember the ol Wall Street adage "Bottoms are events. Tops are processes."

SPY