Sunday, June 26, 2011

Getting ready to bet on China and a look at the BRIC's



The relationship between the developed and developing world is like a teeter totter an illustration loosely based on Friedman "The World is Flat". Now that the developed world appears to be succumbing to gravity's natural pull the developing world is set to rise. I'm anticipating this process to become more pronounced in the coming months.

As inflation begins to cool thanks to the end or a pause in the fiat printing policies of the US and the Western economies watch China and the emerging markets to begin loosening their monetary stimulative policies in an effort to reignite growth. A rising dollar will naturally cool global inflation and it appears as if the dollar is set for a longer-term bounce. Along with Jim Rogers I believe that the US is now out of stimulative bullets. Ber-nanke can't engage in another round of QE for the foreseeable future and the impact of a bloated Fed balance sheet may now be at an over-saturation point. Major fiscal cuts including entitlements seem to be around the bend as the debt ceiling impasse is coming down to the wire. Even  Geitner conceded that the day's of large US stimulus are over for the next decade and that should also provide a boost to the dollar.

I've been aching to get involved in China (yuan, ETF's, etc...) so I'll be watching for more bullish news out of China. Copper is a good bellwether for Chinese growth so keep an eye on it to break out of this sideways consolidation base.

Its probably not going to be a smooth ride so this may be one of those long-term holds where you have to apply a generous stop. I'll probably be "investing" here rather than "trading".

As for Chinese fraud, corruption and lack of transparency the risk is definitely there but that's why the reward conversely is that much greater. At the end of the day "I'd rather be invested with the creditors than the debtors" ~ Jim Rogers

I've also included some charts for EEM, Brazil, India and China.



FT: How China plans to reinforce the global recovery http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e3fe038a-9dc9-11e0-b30c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1QOQJrDRt

China set to benefit from all this SPR B.S.: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/iea-opec-nash-equilibrium-collapses-1973-style-opec-embargo-next
China

Copper (HG_F) 


CYB (Chinese Yuan ETF)


FXI

Weekly


Daily


Daily


CAF


Weekly


Daily




Emerging Markets

EEM




Brazil

EWZ

Weekly


Daily


EWZS (Small Caps)

Weekly


Daily


India

PIN



Russia

RSX

Weekly


Daily



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