Memorial Weekend Market Update 052912

Observations:

-SPX & NDX closing in on the 200SMA on daily, wedging at the 24% fib (RUT bounced is above it's 200SMA)

-Dollar broke out and is uptrending toward 84, RSI is 82.3

-Crude sitting on 90 UTL support on the weekly

-TLT triple top? Also negative divergences at this retest

- AAPL at DTL resistance will need for it to break up and hold 50% fib (570) for any meaningful rally in the markets with next resistance around 580-582.

- VIX is uptrending holding above 20

-McClellan Oscillator is down trending

SPX (Daily, 30 minute)

NDX (Daily, 30 minute)

RUT-X (Daily, 30 minute)

Dollar (Daily)

Crude (Daily)

TLT (Weekly, Daily)

Gold (Daily)

AAPL (Daily, 30 minute)

Shanghai Composite (Daily)

VIX (Daily)

McClellan Oscillator

Stock Buy List 052312

FIRE *already long ITM vertical call spread around 52

EBAY

ATHN

ARIA

V

DDD

Market Impasse 051312

Just some weekend homework/observations:

- Still down channel flagging action on SPX & NDX
- RUT still has the H&S or possible descending triangle
- SPX having trouble getting above 23.6% fib
- Looking like weak bear flags on the major indexes
- AAPL keeps sliding along previous down channel and now forming what looks like a bear flag
- XLF sub 15 (thank you JPM)
- Dollar at crucial down trend resistance
- EURUSD looks like double bottom (January lows) coming sub 1.27000
- VIX approaching 20 resistance

SPX (Daily, 30 minute)

NDX (Daily, 30 minute)

RUT (Daily, 30 minute)

AAPL (Daily, 30 minute)

XLF (Daily, Hourly)

Dollar (Daily)

EURUSD (Daily)

VIX (Daily)

McClellan Oscillator (Daily)

State of the Market 050812

*Disclaimer: I'm net long but hedged.

Seeing a lot of bearish sentiment on the stream today while ES trading under 1350 which perfectly set up the late day rally and short squeeze back into yesterday's range. We may still see Sunday's lows around 42 near-term but it feels like the market is trying to bounce. Now that everyone sees the captain obvious H&S in Russell looks like a good spot to capitulate.

Some constructive (not necessarily bullish) signs I saw today were:

- ES closed strong, above 1350-53 and at the 43 bottom there were positive divergences.
- Lots of bullish daily candles today.
- AAPL held 560 and rallied back to positive eod but ultimately closed the day red.
- XLF lost then recaptured and closed above 15.
- IYT closed near the highs (still in wedge)
- VIX rejected above 20 and closed below.

SPX (Daily, 30 mminute)

NDX (Daily, 30 minute)

RUT-X (Daily, 30 minute)

AAPL (Daily, 30 minute)

XLF (Daily, 30 minute)

IYT (Daily, 30 minute)

ES Daily Plan 050412

Commentary


E-mini S&Ps are little changed ahead of this morning's April payroll report. The U.S. markets are mainly looking ahead to today's April payroll report, which is expected to improve to +162,000 from March's disappointing report of +120,000. The dollar index is slightly higher by +0.10 points. Commodity prices are mixed with crude oil down $1.25 and gold down $4.4, but with copper up 0.4 and grains and softs trading higher.
European stocks are lower this morning with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.47%. Bearish factors include this morning's downward revisions in European service PMIs and political uncertainty ahead of Sunday's elections in France, Greece, and Germany. The April services purchasing managers index (PMI) was revised lower to 46.9 from 47.9 for the Eurozone, to 52.2 from 52.6 for Germany, to 45.2 from 46.4 for France, and to 42.3 from 44.3 for Italy. The Eurozone composite PMI fell to 46.7 from 49.1 in March.
There was some good news on the consumer spending front with March Eurozone retail sales reported at +0.3% m/m and -0.2% y/y, which was better than the market consensus of unchanged m/m and -1.1% y/y and better than the revised March report of -0.2% m/m and -2.1% y/y. Socialist party chief Francois Hollande remains ahead of French President Nicolas Sarkozy in all five polls taken within the last two days, but Mr. Hollande's lead has narrowed a bit after Wednesday's debate. Still, Mr. Hollande's lead in all the polls is 5 points or more and he still appears to be headed for victory.
Stock markets in China (+0.91%) and Taiwan (+0.54%) closed higher today, but the rest of the main Asian-Pacific stock markets closed lower: Hong Kong -0.77%, Australia -0.74%, Singapore -0.34%, South Korea -0.62%, India -1.87%. Chinese stocks received a boost from news last night that China's HSBC April services PMI rose +0.8 to 54.1 from 53.3 in March. The Australian central bank today in its quarterly monetary policy statement cut its GDP and inflation forecasts, justifying the central bank's 50 bp rate cut earlier this week. The central bank cut its 2012 GDP estimate to +3.0% from Feb's estimate of +3.5%, and cut its 2012 CPI estimate to +2.5% from +3.0%. The Australian dollar was little changed on the policy statement.

DAX: http://www.forexpros.com/indices/germany-30-advanced-chart

Open Type

Not sure looks to be trying to Open Out Of Range (5:43AM)

Trade Scenarios

RTH PP: 90

Globex PP: 91 

Bull/Bear Line: 89-90

- Longs: 80-78 (ONL) with upside targets 83, 87+

- Shorts: 89 (ONH)-90 with downside targets 83, 80+ under 80 we have 77 to 70.

Econ Calendar

Monster Employment Index
8:30 Nonfarm Payrolls

Global

Fri May 4			USD ICSC Chain Store Sales (YoY) (APR)	Medium			4.1%
	00:15		CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (MAR)	Medium		1.1%	0.8%
	00:55		EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)	Medium		52.6	52.6
	01:00		EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (APR F)	Medium		47.4	47.4
	01:00		EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)	Medium		47.9	47.9
	02:00		EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)	High		-1.1%	-2.1%
	02:00		EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)	Medium		0.0%	-0.1%
	05:30 LIVE		USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (APR)	High		165K	120K
	05:30		USD Unemployment Rate (APR)	High		8.2%	8.2%
	05:30		USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (MoM) (APR)	Medium		0.2%	0.2%
	05:30		USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (YoY) (APR)	Medium		2.1%	2.1%
	05:30		USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (APR)	Medium		20K	37K
	05:30		USD Change in Private Payrolls (APR)	Medium		173K	121K
	05:30		USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (APR)	Medium			14.5%
	07:00		CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (APR)	Medium		60.8	63.5

ES (3 minute, Daily) 

Earnings

Notable earnings before today's open: AEE, AES, AON, ARCO, BPO, CHD, DUK, EL, EXC, ITT, MFA, POM,PPL, SE, WCRX

Indexes (SPX, NDX, RUT)

SPX (Daily)

30 minute

NDX (Daily)

30 minute

RUT (Daily)

Market Leaders (Daily)

AAPL (Daily)

30 minute

IBM (Daily)

MA (Daily)

XLF (Daily)