Tuesday, March 27, 2012

032712: ES Failed F U Move & NQ strong until EOD

Warning signs were:

- ES could not get above globex VWAP
- ES delta was weak all day sub 0
- ADVN-DECN was weak all day (chopping around 0 line)
- TRIN was strong
- VIX was strong all day
- ZB uptrending all day
- Finnies were weak (BAC d/g)

Conflicting signs were:

- NQ uptrend almost all day
- AAPL AMZN strong almost all day except EOD
- TICK strong all day except EOD
- prior day saw a massive F U squeeze rally in the final hour

News impact:


econ news
7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 Budget Hearing (Geithner)
10:00 Hearing: Fed’s aid to Eurozone (Dudley)
12:35 PM Fed’s Rosengren: Economic Outlook
12:45 PM Bernanke: ‘The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis’
3:45 PM Fed’s Duke: ‘Building Sustainable Communities’


ES


NQ


Internals


Futures & Stocks


Metals & Futures



Footprint



Sunday, March 25, 2012

Saturday, March 24, 2012

VVUS next leg this week?

Above 22 could wake up the herd

*Disclaimer: long 20

Weekly


Daily


Bullish or bearish into next week?

SPX

30 minute


NQ

30 minute


TF

4 hour


30 minute


YM

4 hour


Wednesday, March 21, 2012

AAPL 600 a top?

Today's AAPL's weak close was interesting so I wanted to see where it's at:

*I have no AAPL position but I own a handful of QQQ puts that I started today.

Weekly

Is this a reversal Star Position in the making candle pattern?


Daily

Is this a gravestone doji candle today?


30 minute

Bumping up against resistance but still managed to close above 600. The next few days will give more clues as to whether AAPL will begin to pullback and where buyers will step in.


Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Market Snapshot 032012

It has been a long time since I did a market review but given our unstoppable run I wanted to see where we currently stand. Since my focus is now day trading futures this kind of daily research really isn't relevant to my approach. 

Markets continue to be risk on whatever (dollar up down euro up down) all dips continue to be bought. We are still not seeing sustained selling (opens are sold but closes like today are not) and AAPL sub 600 continues to be bought. Financials (XLF) is seeing sector rotation and leading. McClellan Oscillator shows we are way from overbought. Bonds are beginning to perk up out of their bases. And as I write this ES is up 5 points off 1400... So BTD lives on.

Here are some charts I'm looking at:

SPY

Weekly


Day


Hourly


QQQ
Monthly



Weekly


Day


30 minute



IWM

Week



Day


Hourly


Dollar


XLF

Weekly


Daily


VIX


McClellan Oscillator


Bonds

30 Yr Yield



TBT

Weekly