One Bad Trade Breeds Another Bad Trade
Morale of the story reinforcement:
1. SPY knife catch: When we saw that late day selling come into the market I was licking my chops ready to catch this knife. I waited for the selling to slow to start buying SPY 133.2 with increased tier size but I failed to wait for confirmation (tail wick, candle, being able to get above a certain price, volume change, etc...). 6 home-run swings and misses in less than 30 minutes. Every time I got stopped out I could feel my blood pressure rising and my myopia increasing. I was in the red zone and it's hard to remember exactly what was going through my head but I think I had 2 predominant thoughts. One was that we were "supposed" to fry the shorts into the close so this dip was a shake and we would soon rip to new highs or test that 1338 level. The second was that this was my golden trade ticket. So these 2 biases translated into "get in bigger get in bigger get in bigger" which ultimately resulted in a nice hole for the day.
2. AAPL pin/over-extended trade: Yeah I know there is something not right about AAPL lately: market is ripping and AAPL not participating. A BIG problem I have is that I will turn to AAPL when I need to make "fast" money and get a P&L booster shot. In the past I have traded AAPL Friday pin in a strong tape with pretty good success (probably north of 70% win rate) so you can understand why I turned to this beast to recuperate my P&L. The first set of AAPL trades were somewhat in line with my trading: AAPL had a nice tail wick off 343.3 and the SPY had just tail wicked off 132.80'ish confirmed by the tape. I thought there was a few points in this trade up to yesterday's high or at least a VWAP test. I was willing to give it about 30c to hopefully catch a 1.5+ move. Well AAPL couldn't get above 345 so I figured that this was where the weekly pin action would happen. I noticed that 344 was holding so I got long a few times as momo trades & hit out if the tape slowed. The second series of AAPL trades were penny scalps trying to exploit the push to that level with 20c stops to catch maybe 30-50c. That's not sticking to a 3/1 or 5/1 RR and is breaking discipline to get back my SPY losses. Even though this strategy worked I need to avoid this hyper-scalping/revenge trading situation in the future.
Morale of the story reinforcement:
1. Breathe and take a step back when you see a sharp sell-off
2. Check multiple time-frames for real support and then confirmation
3. Don't over-trade into the afternoon
4. Stick to good R/R setups
5. Don't focus on P&L it's about the setups stupid
All the red brackets in the table below are trades where I broke my discipline and trading plan:
Time | Symbol | Side | Market | TIF | Price |
9:33:25 | EBIX | BOT | INCA | DAY | 24.04 |
9:37:12 | EBIX | SLD | INCA | DAY | 24.39 |
9:42:30 | NYX | BOT | INCA | DAY | 39.05 |
9:43:17 | NYX | SLD | INCA | IOC | 38.95 |
9:44:25 | NYX | BOT | INCA | DAY | 39.01 |
9:45:02 | NYX | BOT | INCA | DAY | 38.97 |
9:46:48 | NYX | SLD | INCA | DAY | 38.97 |
9:49:03 | NYX | SLD | INCA | DAY | 38.99 |
9:50:01 | NYX | BOT | INCA | DAY | 39.05 |
9:50:23 | NYX | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 38.98 |
9:57:56 | LVS | BOT | INCA | DAY | 44.03 |
9:58:25 | LVS | SLD | INCA | IOC | 44.08 |
9:58:52 | LVS | SLD | INCA | IOC | 44.05 |
10:01:01 | LVS | BOT | INCA | DAY | 44.07 |
10:02:06 | LVS | SLD | INCA | DAY | 44.17 |
10:06:53 | LVS | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 44.095 |
10:15:00 | NYX | BOT | INCA | IOC | 39.14 |
10:18:32 | NYX | SLD | INCA | DAY | 39.16 |
10:22:28 | LVS | BOT | INCA | DAY | 43.93 |
10:22:34 | LVS | SLD | INCA | DAY | 43.89 |
10:22:48 | LVS | BOT | INCA | DAY | 43.94 |
10:23:26 | LVS | BOT | INCA | DAY | 43.89 |
10:23:35 | LVS | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 43.82 |
10:25:41 | NYX | BOT | INCA | DAY | 39.24 |
10:26:47 | NYX | BOT | INCA | DAY | 39.2 |
10:29:34 | NYX | SLD | INCA | DAY | 39.3 |
10:31:48 | NYX | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 39.24 |
10:34:38 | LVS | BOT | INCA | DAY | 43.56 |
10:34:56 | LVS | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 43.41 |
10:36:04 | LVS | BOT | INCA | DAY | 43.43 |
10:36:58 | LVS | SLD | INCA | DAY | 43.49 |
10:39:49 | LVS | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 43.48 |
10:42:53 | LVS | BOT | INCA | DAY | 43.6 |
10:42:58 | LVS | BOT | INCA | IOC | 43.64 |
10:45:22 | LVS | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 43.54 |
10:47:59 | FCX | BOT | INCA | DAY | 54.62 |
11:05:37 | X | BOT | INCA | DAY | 53.48 |
11:15:17 | X | SLD | INCA | DAY | 53.5 |
11:16:06 | FCX | SLD | INCA | DAY | 55.09 |
14:48:42 | SPY | BOT | INCA | DAY | 133.22 |
14:49:17 | SPY | BOT | INCA | IOC | 133.19 |
14:53:37 | SPY | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 133.18 |
14:54:39 | SPY | BOT | INCA | DAY | 133.21 |
14:55:53 | SPY | SLD | INCA | IOC | 133.13 |
14:56:52 | SPY | BOT | INCA | DAY | 133.2 |
14:56:59 | SPY | BOT | INCA | IOC | 133.21 |
14:57:50 | SPY | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 133.11 |
14:58:45 | WYNN | BOT | INCA | DAY | 133.22 |
15:00:47 | WYNN | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 133.01 |
15:02:30 | SPY | BOT | INCA | DAY | 133.1 |
15:02:33 | SPY | BOT | INCA | DAY | 133.11 |
15:04:34 | WYNN | BOT | INCA | DAY | 133.07 |
15:04:43 | WYNN | BOT | INCA | DAY | 133.13 |
15:05:10 | WYNN | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 133.0848 |
15:06:18 | WYNN | BOT | INCA | DAY | 133.1 |
15:07:05 | WYNN | BOT | INCA | DAY | 133.2 |
15:10:18 | WYNN | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 132.91 |
15:12:24 | SPY | BOT | INCA | IOC | 133.07 |
15:12:31 | SPY | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 132.97 |
15:12:33 | LVS | BOT | INCA | DAY | 43.39 |
15:13:02 | LVS | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 43.29 |
15:14:56 | AAPL | BOT | INCA | DAY | 343.73 |
15:17:21 | AAPL | SLD | INCA | IOC | 344.3 |
15:17:27 | AAPL | BOT | INCA | DAY | 344.3 |
15:19:28 | AAPL | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 344.11 |
15:20:04 | AAPL | BOT | INCA | DAY | 344.13 |
15:21:39 | AAPL | SLD | INCA | DAY | 344.44 |
15:22:11 | AAPL | SSD | INCA | DAY | 344.44 |
15:22:18 | AAPL | BOT | INCA | IOC | 344.39 |
15:23:20 | AAPL | BOT | INCA | DAY | 344.06 |
15:23:38 | AAPL | SLD | INCA | IOC | 343.86 |
15:25:36 | AAPL | BOT | INCA | DAY | 343.92 |
15:26:02 | AAPL | SLD | INCA | DAY | 344.03 |
15:26:25 | AAPL | BOT | INCA | DAY | 344.09 |
15:26:37 | AAPL | SLD | INCA | DAY | 344.6 |
15:28:29 | AMZN | BOT | INCA | DAY | 179.56 |
15:29:50 | AMZN | BOT | INCA | DAY | 179.34 |
15:31:28 | AMZN | SLD | INCA | DAY | 179.7 |
15:31:42 | AMZN | SLD | INCA | DAY | 179.68 |
15:31:55 | AMZN | BOT | INCA | DAY | 179.81 |
15:32:06 | AMZN | SLD | INCA | DAY | 179.88 |
15:34:21 | BIDU | BOT | INCA | DAY | 138.41 |
15:34:58 | BIDU | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 138.15 |
15:36:55 | AAPL | BOT | INCA | DAY | 344.62 |
15:37:23 | AAPL | BOT | INCA | DAY | 344.5 |
15:40:37 | AAPL | SLD | INCA | DAY | 344.77 |
15:47:13 | AAPL | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 344.365 |
15:48:15 | AAPL | BOT | INCA | DAY | 344.38 |
15:49:08 | AAPL | SLD | INCA | DAY | 344.49 |
15:49:13 | AAPL | BOT | INCA | DAY | 344.44 |
15:51:31 | AAPL | SLD | SDOT | DAY | 344.21 |
15:53:27 | AAPL | BOT | INCA | DAY | 343.93 |
15:54:12 | TSLA | BOT | INCA | DAY | 26.63 |
15:54:52 | TSLA | SLD | INCA | IOC | 26.65 |
15:56:08 | AAPL | SLD | INCA | DAY | 343.94 |
15:56:40 | AAPL | BOT | INCA | DAY | 344 |
15:59:17 | AAPL | SLD | INCA | DAY | 344.31 |
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